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Al Kahrabaa v Karbala

Al Kahrabaa

0–0Full time

Karbala

Iraqi League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:31

Al Kahrabaa 0–0 Karbala AL KAHRABAA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Kahrabaa win~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.831

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 5 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Kahrabaa win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al Kahrabaa was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–23
1′KICK-OFF Al Kahrabaa v Karbala
4′Much as we predicted: Al Kahrabaa was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–26–23
45′HALF-TIME Al Kahrabaa 0–0 Karbala
46′SECOND HALF Al Kahrabaa 0–0 Karbala
53′PENALTY MISSED · 53' Al Kahrabaa
FTFULL TIME Al Kahrabaa 0–0 Karbala
FTAl Kahrabaa 0–0 Karbala · Al Kahrabaa win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Al Kahrabaa win50%

Draw27%

Karbala win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:45

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al kahrabaa winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Al Kahrabaa a 50% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Kahrabaa win	50%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Karbala win	22%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	47%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	26%	–	–
Al Kahrabaa or draw	78%	–	–
Al Kahrabaa clean sheet	38%	–	–
Karbala clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 9.1 6.5 3.7 1 11.0 12.8 5.7 2 9.6 9.2 4.5 3 5.1 4.9 2.4 4 2.1 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Kahrabaa down, Karbala across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,365 Iraqi League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Iraqi League matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.9% of games this season, across 87 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Kahrabaa at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Karbala away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Al Kahrabaa, 0.98 for Karbala. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ALK 1–1 KAR · KAR 0–0 ALK · KAR 0–0 ALK · ALK 0–1 KAR

Form · last six in Iraqi League

AL KAHRABAA

DDDLWL1–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–2

KARBALA

LLWLLL0–3 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 1–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Karma	8	+9	20
2	Al Zawra'a	9	+9	18
3	Erbil	9	+9	18
4	Naft	9	+6	18
5	Al Shorta	9	+5	16
6	Newroz	9	+6	15
7	Duhok	9	+3	12
8	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	9	+2	11
9	Al Talaba	9	−1	11
10	Al-Jolan SC	9	−1	11
11	Al Minaa Basra	8	−2	9
12	Diyala	9	−3	9
13	Zakho	9	−5	9
14	Ghaz Al Shamal	8	−1	8
15	Naft Maysan	9	−5	8
16	Mosul	9	−6	8
17	Al Karkh	8	−4	7
18	Al Kahrabaa	8	−4	7
19	Gharraf	9	−8	6
20	Karbala	8	−9	5