Al Kahrabaa v Al Talaba prediction · Iraqi League

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:01

Al Kahrabaa 0–1 Al Talaba AL TALABA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Talaba win~~41%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.521

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.634

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Talaba win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al Talaba was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 30–28–42
1′KICK-OFF Al Kahrabaa v Al Talaba
36′A goal for Al Kahrabaa on 35′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 64–24–11
36′We said Al Talaba at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 1–0 · 64–24–11
36′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 64–24–11
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Al Kahrabaa 1–0 Al Talaba
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Al Talaba win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Al Kahrabaa win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Al Talaba win 11%)
38′GOAL DISALLOWED · 38' Al Kahrabaa
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Al Talaba win: 41% at kick-off, 35% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Al Kahrabaa win 26%)
45′HALF-TIME Al Kahrabaa 0–0 Al Talaba
46′SECOND HALF Al Kahrabaa 0–0 Al Talaba
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+4' Al Talaba win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
54′We said Al Talaba at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 22–48–29
57′A goal for Al Talaba on 57′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 4–18–79
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Al Kahrabaa 0–1 Al Talaba
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Al Talaba win: 41% at kick-off, 79% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Al Talaba win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 18%)
58′We published Al Talaba at 41%. Our model now makes it 79%. 0–1 · 4–17–79
60′We published Al Talaba at 41%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Al Talaba win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
71′We published Al Talaba at 41%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
79′We published Al Talaba at 41%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Al Talaba win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
86′We published Al Talaba at 41%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME Al Kahrabaa 0–1 Al Talaba
FTAl Kahrabaa 0–1 Al Talaba · Al Talaba win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Talaba are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Kahrabaa 28%, draw 30%, Al Talaba 41%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Al Kahrabaa v Al TalabaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Al Kahrabaa win28%

Draw30%

Al Talaba win41%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Kahrabaa

Al Talaba

6Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Iraqi League

Last match: 8 Oct · Iraqi League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Al Kahrabaa	9	−4	8
15	Al Talaba	9	−5	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al talaba winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

41% The market35%

Us41%

~~Market~~35%

We make Al Talaba a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Kahrabaa v Al Talaba~~1.03 – 1.29

~~Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 8~~14 v 15

~~The market · Al Talaba win~~35% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Talaba win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Kahrabaa win	28%	35%	−7
Draw	30%	30%	0
Al Talaba win	41%	35%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	41%	40%	+1
Both teams to score	47%	48%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	68%	66%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	21%	0
Al Kahrabaa or draw	59%	65%	−6
Al Kahrabaa clean sheet	28%	–	–
Al Talaba clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 11.4 11.4 8.1 3.5 1 8.9 14.1 8.2 3.6 2 5.2 6.6 4.2 3 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Kahrabaa down, Al Talaba across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,367 Iraqi League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Iraqi League matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.8% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Kahrabaa at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Al Talaba away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Al Kahrabaa, 1.29 for Al Talaba. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALK 1–2 ALT · ALT 2–0 ALK · ALT 1–0 ALK · ALK 1–2 ALT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 29 Aug

AL KAHRABAA

DDLWLD2–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–0

AL TALABA

DDWLDD0–0 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Karma	9	+10	23
2	Newroz	9	+10	18
3	Al Zawra'a	9	+9	18
4	Erbil	9	+9	18
5	Naft	9	+6	18
6	Al Shorta	9	+5	16
7	Duhok	9	+3	12
8	Al Minaa Basra	9	0	12
9	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	9	+2	11
10	Al-Jolan SC	9	−1	11
11	Diyala	9	−3	9
12	Zakho	9	−5	9
13	Ghaz Al Shamal	9	−3	8
14	Al Kahrabaa	9	−4	8
15	Al Talaba	9	−5	8
16	Naft Maysan	9	−5	8
17	Mosul	9	−6	8
18	Al Karkh	9	−5	7
19	Gharraf	9	−8	6
20	Karbala	9	−9	6