Al-Jolan SC v Duhok prediction · Iraqi League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:42

Al-Jolan SC 2–0 Duhok DUHOK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Duhok win~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.657

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Duhok win at 35%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Duhok 35% before kick-off, 35% now. 0–0 · 34–31–35
1′KICK-OFF Al-Jolan SC v Duhok
16′Al-Jolan SC find the net on 16′. 1–0. 1–0 · 67–21–12
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Al-Jolan SC 1–0 Duhok
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Duhok win: 35% at kick-off, 12% now
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Al-Jolan SC win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Duhok win 12%)
17′We said Duhok at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 12%. 1–0 · 67–21–12
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 69–21–10
33′We said Duhok at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 69–21–9
45′HALF-TIME Al-Jolan SC 1–0 Duhok
46′SECOND HALF Al-Jolan SC 1–0 Duhok
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+8' Duhok win: 35% at kick-off, 5% now
58′We said Duhok at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–19–4
90′A goal for Al-Jolan SC on 90′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Al-Jolan SC 2–0 Duhok
FTFULL TIME Al-Jolan SC 2–0 Duhok
FTAl-Jolan SC 2–0 Duhok · Duhok win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Duhok just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Jolan SC 34%, draw 31%, Duhok 35%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Al-Jolan SC v DuhokBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Al-Jolan SC win34%

Draw31%

Duhok win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 10

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Jolan SC

Duhok

8Days since last match9

Last match: 9 Oct · Iraqi League

Last match: 8 Oct · Iraqi League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Duhok	9	+3	12
11	Al-Jolan SC	9	−1	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · duhok winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

35% The market–

Us35%

We make Duhok a 35% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Jolan SC v Duhok~~1.11 – 1.13

~~Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D4 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 11 v 12~~11 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Jolan SC win	34%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Duhok win	35%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Al-Jolan SC or draw	65%	–	–
Al-Jolan SC clean sheet	33%	–	–
Duhok clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%

0123450 12.3 10.8 6.8 2.6 1 10.6 14.3 7.3 2.8 2 6.6 7.2 4.1 3 2.5 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Jolan SC down, Duhok across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,371 Iraqi League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Iraqi League matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.2% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Al-Jolan SC at home: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 4). Duhok away: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Al-Jolan SC, 1.13 for Duhok. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 29 Aug

AL-JOLAN SC

DWDLDD3–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–0

DUHOK

DWDLDW0–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Karma	9	+10	23
2	Newroz	10	+12	21
3	Al Zawra'a	9	+9	18
4	Erbil	9	+9	18
5	Naft	9	+6	18
6	Al Shorta	9	+5	16
7	Duhok	9	+3	12
8	Diyala	10	−1	12
9	Al Minaa Basra	10	−2	12
10	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	9	+2	11
11	Al-Jolan SC	9	−1	11
12	Al Talaba	10	−4	11
13	Zakho	9	−5	9
14	Gharraf	10	−7	9
15	Ghaz Al Shamal	9	−3	8
16	Al Kahrabaa	10	−5	8
17	Mosul	9	−6	8
18	Naft Maysan	10	−7	8
19	Al Karkh	9	−5	7
20	Karbala	10	−10	6