Al-Jolan SC v Al Kahrabaa prediction · Iraqi League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:06

Al-Jolan SC 2–1 Al Kahrabaa AL-JOLAN SC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al-Jolan SC win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.516

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Jolan SC win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al-Jolan SC was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–31–28
1′KICK-OFF Al-Jolan SC v Al Kahrabaa
21′Al-Jolan SC score on 21′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 73–18–8
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Al-Jolan SC 1–0 Al Kahrabaa
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Al-Jolan SC win: 41% at kick-off, 73% now
22′We published Al-Jolan SC at 41%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–18–8
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 74–19–7
34′We published Al-Jolan SC at 41%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
35′20′: Y. Fawzi on the scoresheet for Al-Jolan SC, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 75–19–7
36′Al Kahrabaa find the net on 35′. 1–1. 1–1 · 35–40–25
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Al-Jolan SC 1–1 Al Kahrabaa
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Al-Jolan SC win: 41% at kick-off, 35% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Al-Jolan SC win 75%)
45′HALF-TIME Al-Jolan SC 1–1 Al Kahrabaa
46′SECOND HALF Al-Jolan SC 1–1 Al Kahrabaa
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Al-Jolan SC win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
51′A goal for Al-Jolan SC on 50′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 78–18–4
51′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.2 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 78–18–4
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Al-Jolan SC 2–1 Al Kahrabaa
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Al-Jolan SC win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Al-Jolan SC win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 47%)
58′We published Al-Jolan SC at 41%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–3
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Al-Jolan SC win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
70′We published Al-Jolan SC at 41%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
78′We published Al-Jolan SC at 41%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Al-Jolan SC win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
85′We published Al-Jolan SC at 41%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
FTFULL TIME Al-Jolan SC 2–1 Al Kahrabaa
FTAl-Jolan SC 2–1 Al Kahrabaa · Al-Jolan SC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Jolan SC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Jolan SC 41%, draw 31%, Al Kahrabaa 28%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Al-Jolan SC v Al KahrabaaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al-Jolan SC win41%

Draw31%

Al Kahrabaa win28%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Jolan SC

Al Kahrabaa

6Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Iraqi League

Last match: 16 Oct · Iraqi League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Al-Jolan SC	10	+1	14
18	Al Kahrabaa	10	−5	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-jolan sc winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 18 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Al-Jolan SC a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Jolan SC v Al Kahrabaa~~1.26 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 3 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 14 v 8~~7 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al-Jolan SC win

Published at 39%, 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Jolan SC win	41%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Al Kahrabaa win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Al-Jolan SC or draw	72%	–	–
Al-Jolan SC clean sheet	38%	–	–
Al Kahrabaa clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 12.1 9.3 5.2 1 12.2 14.0 6.3 2.1 2 8.4 8.1 4.0 3 3.6 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Jolan SC down, Al Kahrabaa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,380 Iraqi League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Iraqi League matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.0% of games this season, across 103 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Al-Jolan SC at home: 0.80 scored, 0.80 conceded a game (last 5). Al Kahrabaa away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Al-Jolan SC, 0.99 for Al Kahrabaa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Iraqi League this season · since 3 Sept

AL-JOLAN SC

WDLDDW1–0 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 2–0

AL KAHRABAA

DLWLDL0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Karma	10	+10	24
2	Naft	11	+8	22
3	Newroz	10	+12	21
4	Al Zawra'a	10	+8	18
5	Erbil	11	+7	18
6	Al Shorta	10	+5	17
7	Al-Jolan SC	10	+1	14
8	Al Talaba	11	−3	14
9	Al Quwa Al Jawiya	11	+1	12
10	Duhok	10	+1	12
11	Diyala	10	−1	12
12	Al Minaa Basra	10	−2	12
13	Zakho	11	−6	12
14	Ghaz Al Shamal	10	−2	11
15	Mosul	10	−5	11
16	Gharraf	11	−7	10
17	Al Karkh	10	−5	8
18	Al Kahrabaa	10	−5	8
19	Naft Maysan	10	−7	8
20	Karbala	10	−10	6