ZOB Ahan v Sepahan FC prediction · Persian Gulf Pro League

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 16:13

ZOB Ahan 1–2 Sepahan FC SEPAHAN FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sepahan FC win~~45%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.466

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.333

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sepahan FC win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sepahan FC 45% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 23–31–47
1′KICK-OFF ZOB Ahan v Sepahan FC
3′A goal for Sepahan FC on 2′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 6–16–78
3′⚽ GOAL · 2' ZOB Ahan 0–1 Sepahan FC
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Sepahan FC win: 45% at kick-off, 78% now
5′We said Sepahan FC at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 0–1 · 6–16–78
11′🟨 YELLOW · 11' ZOB Ahan
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' ZOB Ahan 0–2 Sepahan FC
25′24′ and it is 0–2: Sepahan FC have scored. 0–2 · 1–4–95
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Sepahan FC win: 45% at kick-off, 95% now
27′We said Sepahan FC at 45% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
36′SUBSTITUTION · 34' ZOB Ahan · On: A. Mortazavi · Off: P. Mokhtari
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Sepahan FC
40′🟥 RED CARD · 40' ZOB Ahan
45′HALF-TIME ZOB Ahan 0–2 Sepahan FC
46′⚽ GOAL · 2' ZOB Ahan 0–2 Sepahan FC · M. Lotfi (assist A. Rezavand)
46′🟨 YELLOW · 9' A. Jeddi · ZOB Ahan
46′⚽ GOAL · 23' ZOB Ahan 0–2 Sepahan FC · K. Rezaei (assist A. Rezavand)
46′SUBSTITUTION · 32' ZOB Ahan · On: A. Mortazavi · Off: P. Mokhtari
46′🟨 YELLOW · 34' O. Noorafkan · Sepahan FC
46′🟥 RED CARD · 38' S. Hosseini · ZOB Ahan
46′SECOND HALF ZOB Ahan 0–2 Sepahan FC
56′SUBSTITUTION · 53' ZOB Ahan · On: B. Teymourian · Off: M. Ghaed Rahmati
56′SUBSTITUTION · 55' ZOB Ahan · On: J. Alimohammadi · Off: A. Shojaei
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' ZOB Ahan · On: A. Kazemi · Off: R. Jafari
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Sepahan FC · On: A. Khodadadi · Off: M. Lotfi
83′⚽ GOAL · 82' ZOB Ahan 1–3 Sepahan FC
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' ZOB Ahan 1–3 Sepahan FC
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Sepahan FC
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Sepahan FC · On: S. Karimi · Off: H. Mohammadi
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' ZOB Ahan
FTFULL TIME ZOB Ahan 1–2 Sepahan FC
FTZOB Ahan 1–2 Sepahan FC · Sepahan FC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 13:01 · locked at kick-off

ZOB Ahan win21%

Draw34%

Sepahan FC win45%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 13:30

VenueFoolad Shahr Stadium

Line-ups

ZOB Ahan

Sepahan FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

ZOB Ahan

Sepahan FC

5Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Sepahan FC	7	+6	13
13	ZOB Ahan	7	−2	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

ZOB Ahan

Formation not confirmed

30 D. Noushi Soufiani

2 A. Hosseinifar

99 M. Ghaed Rahmati

75 S. Hosseini

6 A. Shojaei

23 A. Jeddi

14 P. Mokhtari

4 A. Ghaderi

18 A. Jahan Kohan

10 O. Latifi

11 R. Jafari

Coach · –

Substitutes

20 · A. Bahador

1 · H. Pourhamidi

9 · A. Azadmanesh

17 · J. Alimohammadi

21 · M. Khaledi

– · A. Eslami

42 · H. Ghaibipour

43 · H. Jorgeh

55 · B. Teymourian

71 · A. Mortazavi

77 · A. Kazemi

Sepahan FC

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Hosseini

14 A. Yousefi

2 H. Mohammadi

6 A. Hajieydi

28 E. Hajsafi

7 M. Limouchi

19 O. Noorafkan

5 M. Hazbavi

88 A. Rezavand

9 K. Rezaei

79 M. Lotfi

Coach · Moharram Navidkia

Substitutes

8 · S. Karimi

16 · A. Jalalivand

17 · M. Askari

20 · A. Khodadadi

23 · G. Sabet Imani

33 · A. Maghsoudi

3 · A. Kouchaki

81 · A. Habibi

86 · A. Shafiedoost

Our number · sepahan fc winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 13:01 · locked at kick-off

45% The market53%

Us45%

~~Market~~53%

We make Sepahan FC a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sepahan fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
ZOB Ahan win	21%	18%	+3
Draw	34%	28%	+6
Sepahan FC win	45%	53%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	30%	38%	−8
Both teams to score	37%	41%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	58%	62%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	13%	20%	−7
ZOB Ahan or draw	55%	47%	+8
ZOB Ahan clean sheet	31%	–	–
Sepahan FC clean sheet	49%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.1%

0123450 17.1 15.8 10.3 4.1 1 9.1 14.1 7.2 2.9 2 4.0 4.5 2.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+ZOB Ahan down, Sepahan FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,200 Persian Gulf Pro League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Persian Gulf Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 25.0% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 1.78 goals a meeting; 2 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

ZOB Ahan at home: 0.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Sepahan FC away: 0.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.72 goals for ZOB Ahan, 1.18 for Sepahan FC. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.78

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~SEP 0–0 ZOB · SEP 4–1 ZOB · ZOB 1–1 SEP · SEP 1–0 ZOB

Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League

ZOB AHAN

LDDWLD1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–1

SEPAHAN FC

LLWDWW0–2 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 6–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tractor Sazi	8	+7	17
2	Persepolis FC	7	+11	16
3	Esteghlal FC	8	+8	16
4	Sepahan FC	7	+6	13
5	Aluminium Arak	7	+5	13
6	Gol Gohar	8	+3	13
7	Foolad FC	7	+3	12
8	Paykan	8	−1	9
9	Nassaji Mazandaran	8	−2	9
10	Chadormalu SC	8	−5	9
11	Malavan	7	−3	8
12	Kheybar Khorramabad	7	0	7
13	ZOB Ahan	7	−2	7
14	Fajr Sepasi	7	−5	7
15	Shams Azar Qazvin	8	−3	6
16	Esteghlal Khuzestan	8	−8	6
17	Mes Shahr-e Babak	8	−6	5
18	Sanat Naft	8	−8	4