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Model 1.2

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ZOB Ahan v Chadormalu SC

ZOB Ahan
1–2Full time
Chadormalu SC

Persian Gulf Pro League · SUN 18 OCT · Foolad Shahr Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04
ZOB Ahan 1–2 Chadormalu SC DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said a draw37%
The market said33%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.764
The market’s Brier score0.590

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 37%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: the draw 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 34–37–29
  3. 1′KICK-OFF ZOB Ahan v Chadormalu SC
  4. 28′A goal for ZOB Ahan on 28′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–19–7
  5. 28′We said the draw at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 74–19–7
  6. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' ZOB Ahan 1–0 Chadormalu SC
  7. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 19% now
  8. 28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' ZOB Ahan win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 19%)
  9. 31′GOAL DISALLOWED · 31' ZOB Ahan
  10. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 45% now
  11. 31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was ZOB Ahan win 30%)
  12. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 47% now
  13. 41′We said the draw at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 49%. 0–0 · 28–49–24
  14. 43′We said the draw at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 50%. 0–0 · 27–50–23
  15. 45′HALF-TIME ZOB Ahan 0–0 Chadormalu SC
  16. 46′SECOND HALF ZOB Ahan 0–0 Chadormalu SC
  17. 52′We said the draw at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 55%. 0–0 · 24–55–21
  18. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 57% now
  19. 59′We said the draw at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 60%. 0–0 · 21–60–19
  20. 60′A goal for Chadormalu SC on 60′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 3–18–79
  21. 60′The goal count is tracking the 1.8 we expected. 0–1 · 3–18–79
  22. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' ZOB Ahan 0–1 Chadormalu SC
  23. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 18% now
  24. 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Chadormalu SC win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 18%)
  25. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
  26. 67′ZOB Ahan score on 67′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 17–67–15
  27. 67′⚽ GOAL · 67' ZOB Ahan 1–1 Chadormalu SC
  28. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 67% now
  29. 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Chadormalu SC win 15%)
  30. 68′We said the draw at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–1 · 17–68–15
  31. 70′We said the draw at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–1 · 16–70–14
  32. 71′Chadormalu SC find the net on 70′. 1–2. 1–2 · 1–14–85
  33. 71′We said the draw at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 1–14–85
  34. 71′3 goals already, more than the 1.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–14–85
  35. 71′⚽ GOAL · 70' ZOB Ahan 1–2 Chadormalu SC
  36. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 14% now
  37. 71′THE CALL SWINGS · 71' Chadormalu SC win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 14%)
  38. 79′We said the draw at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
  39. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
  40. 87′We said the draw at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 0–4–96
  41. FTFULL TIME ZOB Ahan 1–2 Chadormalu SC
  42. FTZOB Ahan 1–2 Chadormalu SC · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: ZOB Ahan 34%, draw 37%, Chadormalu SC 29%. Over 2.5 goals 26%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on ZOB Ahan v Chadormalu SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

ZOB Ahan win34%
Draw37%
Chadormalu SC win29%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueFoolad Shahr Stadium

Line-ups

ZOB Ahan

Chadormalu SC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ZOB Ahan

Chadormalu SC

5Days since last match9

Last match: 13 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

Last match: 9 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
11Chadormalu SC8−59
14ZOB Ahan8−37

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

ZOB Ahan

Formation not confirmed

30 D. Noushi Soufiani

23 A. Jeddi

4 A. Ghaderi

3 S. Karimi

2 A. Hosseinifar

6 A. Shojaei

10 O. Latifi

17 J. Alimohammadi

99 M. Ghaed Rahmati

77 A. Kazemi

7 M. Mohammadi

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · H. Pourhamidi

9 · A. Azadmanesh

11 · R. Jafari

18 · A. Jahan Kohan

– · A. Eslami

42 · H. Ghaibipour

43 · H. Jorgeh

55 · B. Teymourian

57 · S. Taherkhani

71 · A. Mortazavi

88 · F. Esmaeili

Chadormalu SC

Formation not confirmed

12 Edson Mardden

2 S. Mohammadfar

24 S. Hosseini

5 S. Sadeghian

4 S. M. Hosseini

78 M. Khosravi

76 R. Dehghan

13 R. Mahmoudabadi

10 D. Torres

77 R. Mirzaei

11 Renny

Coach · –

Substitutes

6 · R. Alborno

3 · A. Arta

8 · A. Gholami

16 · M. Tabatabaei

19 · A. Kamali

20 · A. Anafjeh

30 · P. Lashak

72 · R. Bahan

80 · I. Negahdari

82 · A. Kalbasi

90 · A. Asiabanpour

Our number · drawFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
37% The market33%
Us37%
Market33%

We make the draw a 37% chance. The market has it at 33%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · ZOB Ahan v Chadormalu SC0.93 – 0.83
Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 24 AugW1 D3 L2 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 7 v 914 v 11
The market · Draw33% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 12 OCT 04:0218 OCT 12:43
Our probability · Draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
ZOB Ahan win34%30%+4
Draw37%33%+4
Chadormalu SC win29%37%−8
Over 2.5 goals26%29%−3
Both teams to score36%37%−1
Over 1.5 goals54%54%0
Over 3.5 goals10%13%−3
ZOB Ahan or draw71%63%+8
ZOB Ahan clean sheet44%––
Chadormalu SC clean sheet40%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 19.4%
0123450 19.4 12.3 5.9 1 14.1 14.8 5.4 2 7.5 6.1 2.5 3 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+ZOB Ahan down, Chadormalu SC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting0.75
Over 2.50 of 4
Both scored0 of 4
Last meetingsCHA 0–0 ZOB · CHA 1–0 ZOB · ZOB 0–1 CHA · CHA 1–0 ZOB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 24 Aug

ZOB AHAN

DDWLDL1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

CHADORMALU SC

LLDWWD0–3 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Persepolis FC8+1117
2Tractor Sazi8+717
3Esteghlal FC8+816
4Sepahan FC8+716
5Foolad FC8+415
6Aluminium Arak9+313
7Gol Gohar8+313
8Fajr Sepasi8−410
9Paykan8−19
10Nassaji Mazandaran8−29
11Chadormalu SC8−59
12Kheybar Khorramabad808
13Malavan8−48
14ZOB Ahan8−37
15Sanat Naft9−77
16Shams Azar Qazvin8−36
17Esteghlal Khuzestan8−86
18Mes Shahr-e Babak8−65

The competition's standings before kick-off.