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Tractor Sazi v Sanat Naft

Tractor Sazi
3–0Full time
Sanat Naft

Persian Gulf Pro League · THU 22 OCT · Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 17:01
Tractor Sazi 3–0 Sanat Naft TRACTOR SAZI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Tractor Sazi win69%
The market said75%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.152
The market’s Brier score0.104

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 30 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Tractor Sazi win at 69%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Tractor Sazi was 69% before kick-off and our model makes it 69% now. 0–0 · 69–23–8
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Tractor Sazi v Sanat Naft
  4. 14′SUBSTITUTION · 10' Tractor Sazi · On: P. Jafari · Off: A. Beiranvand
  5. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Tractor Sazi win: 69% at kick-off, 59% now
  6. 36′We said Tractor Sazi at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 57%. 0–0 · 57–33–10
  7. 42′We said Tractor Sazi at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–36–10
  8. 45′HALF-TIME Tractor Sazi 0–0 Sanat Naft
  9. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Tractor Sazi win: 69% at kick-off, 53% now
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Tractor Sazi 0–0 Sanat Naft
  11. 51′We said Tractor Sazi at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–42–10
  12. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+6' Tractor Sazi win: 69% at kick-off, 49% now
  13. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Tractor Sazi win: 69% at kick-off, 49% now
  14. 55′We expected about 2.5 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 46–45–9
  15. 57′We said Tractor Sazi at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–46–9
  16. 57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Tractor Sazi
  17. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Tractor Sazi win 45%)
  18. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Tractor Sazi · On: M. Shiri · Off: S. Karimazar
  19. 63′We said Tractor Sazi at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–52–9
  20. 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Tractor Sazi win: 69% at kick-off, 39% now
  21. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Tractor Sazi · On: T. Strkalj · Off: O. Khamrobekov
  22. 68′We said Tractor Sazi at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–58–8
  23. 73′We said Tractor Sazi at 69%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–65–7
  24. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Tractor Sazi win: 69% at kick-off, 28% now
  25. 74′Tractor Sazi score on 73′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 93–6–0
  26. 74′We published Tractor Sazi at 69%. Our model now makes it 93%. 1–0 · 93–6–0
  27. 74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Tractor Sazi 1–0 Sanat Naft
  28. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Tractor Sazi win: 69% at kick-off, 93% now
  29. 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Tractor Sazi win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 65%)
  30. 76′74′: A. Hosseinzadeh on the scoresheet for Tractor Sazi, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 94–6–0
  31. 78′We published Tractor Sazi at 69%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  32. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Sanat Naft
  33. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Tractor Sazi
  34. 84′Tractor Sazi find the net on 83′. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  35. 84′We published Tractor Sazi at 69%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  36. 84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Tractor Sazi 2–0 Sanat Naft
  37. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Tractor Sazi win: 69% at kick-off, over 99% now
  38. 85′Tractor Sazi ahead on 84′ through S. Moghanlou. 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  39. 87′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  40. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Sanat Naft · On: A. Kouliyan · Off: M. Aghajanpour
  41. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Sanat Naft · On: R. Rezaei · Off: M. Abbasi
  42. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Sanat Naft · On: M. Fakhreddini · Off: M. Karimzadeh
  43. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Tractor Sazi · On: M. Kazemayn · Off: S. Moghanlou
  44. 93′A goal for Tractor Sazi on 90′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  45. 93′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  46. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Tractor Sazi 3–0 Sanat Naft
  47. 93′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+3' Tractor Sazi
  48. 98′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Tractor Sazi · On: A. Khorrami · Off: M. Hosseini
  49. 100′🟨 YELLOW · 90+10' Sanat Naft
  50. FTFULL TIME Tractor Sazi 3–0 Sanat Naft
  51. FTTractor Sazi 3–0 Sanat Naft · Tractor Sazi win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tractor Sazi are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tractor Sazi 69%, draw 22%, Sanat Naft 8%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Tractor Sazi v Sanat NaftBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Tractor Sazi win69%
Draw22%
Sanat Naft win8%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueYadegar-e-Emam Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tractor Sazi

Sanat Naft

10Days since last match5

Last match: 12 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite

Last match: 17 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Tractor Sazi8+717
16Sanat Naft9−77

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tractor sazi winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 18 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
69% The market75%
Us69%
Market75%

We make Tractor Sazi a 69% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Tractor Sazi v Sanat Naft1.98 – 0.54
Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 24 AugW3 D2 L1 · W1 D2 L3
Table places · points 17 v 74 v 16
The market · Tractor Sazi win75% · ours 69%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75%80% 16 OCT 00:0022 OCT 14:08
Our probability · Tractor Sazi win The market, margin stripped

Published at 70%, 69% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Tractor Sazi win69%75%−6
Draw22%19%+3
Sanat Naft win8%7%+1
Over 2.5 goals46%51%−5
Both teams to score36%36%0
Over 1.5 goals72%74%−2
Over 3.5 goals25%31%−6
Tractor Sazi or draw92%93%−1
Tractor Sazi clean sheet59%––
Sanat Naft clean sheet15%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 15.2%
0123450 10.0 3.3 1 14.7 9.9 2.4 2 15.2 8.1 2.2 3 10.0 5.3 4 5.1 2.7 5 2.2
under 2% 5% 12%+Tractor Sazi down, Sanat Naft across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.54 of 6
Both scored1 of 6
Last meetingsSAN 0–3 TRA · TRA 3–0 SAN · SAN 1–3 TRA · TRA 1–0 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 24 Aug

TRACTOR SAZI

WWDWLD1–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

SANAT NAFT

DDLLLW0–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Persepolis FC9+1420
2Esteghlal FC9+919
3Sepahan FC9+717
4Tractor Sazi8+717
5Foolad FC9+416
6Aluminium Arak9+313
7Gol Gohar9+213
8Fajr Sepasi9−213
9Chadormalu SC9−412
10Kheybar Khorramabad9+111
11Nassaji Mazandaran9−210
12Paykan9−39
13Malavan8−48
14Shams Azar Qazvin9−37
15ZOB Ahan9−47
16Sanat Naft9−77
17Esteghlal Khuzestan9−96
18Mes Shahr-e Babak9−95

The competition's standings before kick-off.