Sepahan FC v Mes Shahr-e Babak prediction · Persian Gulf Pro League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sepahan FCDrawMes Shahr-e Babak

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Sepahan FC 67%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sepahan FC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sepahan FC 67%, draw 23%, Mes Shahr-e Babak 9%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Sepahan FC v Mes Shahr-e BabakBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Sepahan FC win67%

Draw23%

Mes Shahr-e Babak win9%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:15

RoundMatchday 10

VenueNaghsh-e-Jahan Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sepahan FC

Mes Shahr-e Babak

7Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

Last match: 19 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Sepahan FC	9	+7	17
18	Mes Shahr-e Babak	9	−9	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sepahan fc winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 23 Oct 04:18 · locked at kick-off

67% The market73%

Us67%

~~Market~~73%

We make Sepahan FC a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sepahan FC v Mes Shahr-e Babak~~1.94 – 0.59

~~Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 28 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 17 v 5~~4 v 18

~~The market · Sepahan FC win~~73% · ours 67%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sepahan FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 65%, 67% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 73% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sepahan FC win	67%	73%	−6
Draw	23%	19%	+4
Mes Shahr-e Babak win	9%	8%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	46%	50%	−4
Both teams to score	39%	39%	0
Over 1.5 goals	72%	75%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	25%	28%	−3
Sepahan FC or draw	91%	92%	−1
Sepahan FC clean sheet	56%	–	–
Mes Shahr-e Babak clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 14.7%

0123450 9.9 3.5 1 14.2 10.4 2.7 2 14.7 8.5 2.5 3 9.5 5.4 4 4.7 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sepahan FC down, Mes Shahr-e Babak across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,216 Persian Gulf Pro League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Persian Gulf Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.8% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Sepahan FC at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Mes Shahr-e Babak away: 0.75 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for Sepahan FC, 0.59 for Mes Shahr-e Babak. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 28 Aug

SEPAHAN FC

WDWWWD2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 6–1 · 2–1 · 0–0

MES SHAHR-E BABAK

DDLDLL0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persepolis FC	9	+14	20
2	Tractor Sazi	9	+10	20
3	Esteghlal FC	10	+9	20
4	Sepahan FC	9	+7	17
5	Foolad FC	9	+4	16
6	Aluminium Arak	10	+3	14
7	Kheybar Khorramabad	10	+2	14
8	Gol Gohar	10	+1	13
9	Fajr Sepasi	9	−2	13
10	Chadormalu SC	10	−4	13
11	Nassaji Mazandaran	9	−2	10
12	Paykan	9	−3	9
13	Malavan	8	−4	8
14	ZOB Ahan	10	−4	8
15	Shams Azar Qazvin	9	−3	7
16	Sanat Naft	10	−10	7
17	Esteghlal Khuzestan	9	−9	6
18	Mes Shahr-e Babak	9	−9	5