Sanat Naft v Aluminium Arak prediction · Persian Gulf Pro League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:11

Sanat Naft 2–1 Aluminium Arak ALUMINIUM ARAK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Aluminium Arak win~~38%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.812

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.105

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aluminium Arak win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Aluminium Arak was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 26–36–38
1′KICK-OFF Sanat Naft v Aluminium Arak
17′Sanat Naft find the net on 17′. 1–0. 1–0 · 64–23–13
17′We said Aluminium Arak at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 64–23–13
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Sanat Naft 1–0 Aluminium Arak
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Aluminium Arak win: 38% at kick-off, 13% now
17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Sanat Naft win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Aluminium Arak win 13%)
30′Goals are coming at about the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 67–23–10
34′We said Aluminium Arak at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–23–9
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Aluminium Arak win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Sanat Naft
41′A goal for Sanat Naft on 41′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–2
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Sanat Naft 2–0 Aluminium Arak
42′We said Aluminium Arak at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 2–0 · 92–6–1
45′GOAL DISALLOWED · 45' Sanat Naft
45′HALF-TIME Sanat Naft 1–0 Aluminium Arak
46′SECOND HALF Sanat Naft 1–0 Aluminium Arak
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Aluminium Arak · On: M. Mousavi · Off: S. Shahabbasi
56′A goal for Sanat Naft on 56′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Sanat Naft 2–0 Aluminium Arak
58′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Aluminium Arak · On: R. Jabireh · Off: A. Vatandoust
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Sanat Naft
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Aluminium Arak · On: A. Latifi · Off: M. Mahdavi
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Aluminium Arak · On: S. Sadeghi · Off: A. Ghanbari
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Sanat Naft
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Aluminium Arak
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Aluminium Arak · On: E. Khodadadian · Off: A. Amanipour
73′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Sanat Naft · On: M. Baseri · Off: T. Rikani
83′Aluminium Arak score on 82′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 93–7–0
83′That is 3, and we only asked for 1.9 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 93–7–0
83′⚽ GOAL · 82' Sanat Naft 2–1 Aluminium Arak
84′A red card for Aluminium Arak on 84′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–1 · 94–6–0
84′🟥 RED CARD · 84' Aluminium Arak
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Sanat Naft · On: S. Mehrabizadeh · Off: M. Fallah
FTFULL TIME Sanat Naft 2–1 Aluminium Arak
FTSanat Naft 2–1 Aluminium Arak · Aluminium Arak win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Aluminium Arak just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Sanat Naft 26%, draw 35%, Aluminium Arak 38%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Sanat Naft v Aluminium ArakBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sanat Naft win26%

Draw35%

Aluminium Arak win38%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueTakhti Stadium

Line-ups

Sanat Naft

Aluminium Arak

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sanat Naft

Aluminium Arak

8Days since last match4

Last match: 9 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

Last match: 13 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Aluminium Arak	8	+4	13
18	Sanat Naft	8	−8	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sanat Naft

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Gohari

2 M. Aghajanpour

77 M. Fallah

33 M. Tohidast

12 M. Teymouri

6 A. Taheran

8 K. Zebarjad

21 M. Abbasi

10 T. Rikani

78 M. Karimzadeh

7 M. Seifi

Coach · –

Substitutes

20 · M. Ghobeishavi

– · M. Baseri

4 · R. Yazdandoost

9 · R. Rezaei

19 · A. Kouliyan

22 · P. Afzali

34 · M. Fakhreddini

41 · F. Mirdoraghi

81 · E. Mohammadi

88 · A. Khaki

99 · S. Mehrabizadeh

Aluminium Arak

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Khalifeh

22 S. Shahabbasi

77 R. Zolfipour

4 A. Houshmand

13 M. Mahdavi

8 A. Ghanbari

5 A. Nouri

11 A. Vatandoust

44 S. Jafarikia

99 A. Amanipour

27 A. Latifi

Coach · –

Substitutes

15 · M. Mousavi

69 · R. Jabireh

7 · A. Sadeghi

21 · S. Sadeghi

– · E. Khodadadian

Our number · aluminium arak winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:24 · locked at kick-off

38% The market56%

Us38%

~~Market~~56%

We make Aluminium Arak a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 18 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sanat Naft v Aluminium Arak~~0.83 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 23 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 13~~18 v 6

~~The market · Aluminium Arak win~~56% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Aluminium Arak win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sanat Naft win	26%	16%	+10
Draw	35%	28%	+7
Aluminium Arak win	38%	56%	−18
Over 2.5 goals	29%	34%	−5
Both teams to score	38%	36%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	57%	59%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	12%	16%	−4
Sanat Naft or draw	62%	44%	+18
Sanat Naft clean sheet	36%	–	–
Aluminium Arak clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.6%

0123450 17.6 14.1 8.4 3.0 1 10.8 14.7 6.7 2.4 2 5.3 5.4 2.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sanat Naft down, Aluminium Arak across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,204 Persian Gulf Pro League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Persian Gulf Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 27.8% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.57 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sanat Naft at home: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Aluminium Arak away: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.83 goals for Sanat Naft, 1.05 for Aluminium Arak. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.57

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~5 of 7

~~Last meetings~~SAN 1–0 ALU · ALU 1–1 SAN · SAN 1–2 ALU · ALU 3–1 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 23 Aug

SANAT NAFT

LDDLLL0–3 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 1–3

ALUMINIUM ARAK

WDWDDL2–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persepolis FC	8	+11	17
2	Tractor Sazi	8	+7	17
3	Esteghlal FC	8	+8	16
4	Sepahan FC	8	+7	16
5	Foolad FC	8	+4	15
6	Aluminium Arak	8	+4	13
7	Gol Gohar	8	+3	13
8	Fajr Sepasi	8	−4	10
9	Paykan	8	−1	9
10	Nassaji Mazandaran	8	−2	9
11	Chadormalu SC	8	−5	9
12	Kheybar Khorramabad	8	0	8
13	Malavan	8	−4	8
14	ZOB Ahan	8	−3	7
15	Shams Azar Qazvin	8	−3	6
16	Esteghlal Khuzestan	8	−8	6
17	Mes Shahr-e Babak	8	−6	5
18	Sanat Naft	8	−8	4