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Persepolis FC v Sanat Naft

Persepolis FC

3–1Full time

Sanat Naft

Persian Gulf Pro League · FRI 9 OCT · Azadi Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 17:04

Persepolis FC 3–1 Sanat Naft PERSEPOLIS FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Persepolis FC win~~67%

~~The market said~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.175

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.121

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Persepolis FC win67%

Draw24%

Sanat Naft win9%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 14:30

Venue · Azadi Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Persepolis FC

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Niazmand

8 M. Tikdari

4 M. Zare

5 H. Abarghouei

20 E. Majid

10 M. Mohebi

77 M. Khodabandelou

99 P. Latififar

23 T. Bifouma

7 M. Omri

11 I. Sergeev

Coach · –

Substitutes

83 · A. Taheri

3 · A. Jalali

9 · A. Alipour

21 · P. Shahrabadi

22 · A. Rafiei

34 · A. Mahmoudi

45 · M. Sadeghi

63 · P. Esmi

66 · P. Pourali

70 · O. Urunov

80 · Y. Salmani

Sanat Naft

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Gohari

33 M. Tohidast

34 M. Fakhreddini

2 M. Aghajanpour

12 M. Teymouri

21 M. Abbasi

10 T. Rikani

8 K. Zebarjad

77 M. Fallah

99 S. Mehrabizadeh

7 M. Seifi

Coach · –

Substitutes

20 · M. Ghobeishavi

– · M. Baseri

– · A. Kalivand

25 · S. Asakere

4 · R. Yazdandoost

19 · A. Kouliyan

22 · P. Afzali

41 · F. Mirdoraghi

78 · M. Karimzadeh

88 · A. Nasserkhaki

91 · S. Amarlou

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Persepolis FC

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Niazmand

8 M. Tikdari

4 M. Zare

5 H. Abarghouei

20 E. Majid

10 M. Mohebi

77 M. Khodabandelou

99 P. Latififar

23 T. Bifouma

7 M. Omri

11 I. Sergeev

Coach · –

Substitutes

83 · A. Taheri

3 · A. Jalali

9 · A. Alipour

21 · P. Shahrabadi

22 · A. Rafiei

34 · A. Mahmoudi

45 · M. Sadeghi

63 · P. Esmi

66 · P. Pourali

70 · O. Urunov

80 · Y. Salmani

Sanat Naft

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Gohari

33 M. Tohidast

34 M. Fakhreddini

2 M. Aghajanpour

12 M. Teymouri

21 M. Abbasi

10 T. Rikani

8 K. Zebarjad

77 M. Fallah

99 S. Mehrabizadeh

7 M. Seifi

Coach · –

Substitutes

20 · M. Ghobeishavi

– · M. Baseri

– · A. Kalivand

25 · S. Asakere

4 · R. Yazdandoost

19 · A. Kouliyan

22 · P. Afzali

41 · F. Mirdoraghi

78 · M. Karimzadeh

88 · A. Nasserkhaki

91 · S. Amarlou

Our number · persepolis fc winPublished 9 Oct 14:32

67% The market72%

Us67%

~~Market~~72%

We make Persepolis FC a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–0.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · persepolis fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Persepolis FC win	67%	72%	−5
Draw	24%	19%	+5
Sanat Naft win	9%	9%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	43%	48%	−5
Both teams to score	36%	36%	0
Over 1.5 goals	69%	71%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	22%	28%	−5
Persepolis FC or draw	91%	91%	−1
Persepolis FC clean sheet	59%	–	–
Sanat Naft clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.6%

0123450 11.0 3.9 1 15.6 10.3 2.5 2 15.1 8.0 2.2 3 9.4 4.9 4 4.6 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Persepolis FC down, Sanat Naft across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,197 Persian Gulf Pro League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Persian Gulf Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 23.1% of games this season, across 65 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Persepolis FC at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sanat Naft away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for Persepolis FC, 0.54 for Sanat Naft. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~SAN 0–3 PER · PER 2–2 SAN · SAN 1–2 PER · PER 2–0 SAN

Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League

PERSEPOLIS FC

WWLWDW2–0 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–0

SANAT NAFT

DLDDLL0–0 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tractor Sazi	8	+7	17
2	Esteghlal FC	8	+8	16
3	Persepolis FC	6	+9	13
4	Sepahan FC	7	+6	13
5	Aluminium Arak	7	+5	13
6	Gol Gohar	8	+3	13
7	Foolad FC	7	+3	12
8	Nassaji Mazandaran	8	−2	9
9	Paykan	7	−1	8
10	Malavan	7	−3	8
11	Chadormalu SC	7	−5	8
12	ZOB Ahan	7	−2	7
13	Fajr Sepasi	7	−5	7
14	Kheybar Khorramabad	6	0	6
15	Esteghlal Khuzestan	8	−8	6
16	Shams Azar Qazvin	7	−3	5
17	Mes Shahr-e Babak	8	−6	5
18	Sanat Naft	7	−6	4