Persepolis FC v Foolad FC prediction · Persian Gulf Pro League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Persepolis FCDrawFoolad FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Persepolis FC 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Persepolis FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Persepolis FC 51%, draw 32%, Foolad FC 17%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Persepolis FC v Foolad FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Persepolis FC win51%

Draw32%

Foolad FC win17%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:15

RoundMatchday 10

VenueAzadi Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Persepolis FC

Foolad FC

6Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

Last match: 18 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · persepolis fc winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · updated 20 Oct 00:13 · locked at kick-off

51% The market61%

Us51%

~~Market~~61%

We make Persepolis FC a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Persepolis FC v Foolad FC~~1.36 – 0.69

~~Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 28 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 20 v 16~~1 v 5

~~The market · Persepolis FC win~~61% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Persepolis FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Persepolis FC win	51%	61%	−10
Draw	32%	25%	+7
Foolad FC win	17%	14%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	34%	39%	−5
Both teams to score	38%	43%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	62%	65%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Persepolis FC or draw	83%	86%	−3
Persepolis FC clean sheet	51%	–	–
Foolad FC clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.7%

0123450 15.0 7.1 3.1 1 15.7 13.6 4.1 2 11.8 8.0 2.8 3 5.4 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Persepolis FC down, Foolad FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,216 Persian Gulf Pro League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Persian Gulf Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.8% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Persepolis FC at home: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Foolad FC away: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Persepolis FC, 0.69 for Foolad FC. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FOO 3–1 PER · PER 1–1 FOO · FOO 1–1 PER · PER 2–0 FOO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 28 Aug

PERSEPOLIS FC

WDWWDW3–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 3–0

FOOLAD FC

DLWWWD0–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persepolis FC	9	+14	20
2	Tractor Sazi	9	+10	20
3	Esteghlal FC	10	+9	20
4	Sepahan FC	9	+7	17
5	Foolad FC	9	+4	16
6	Aluminium Arak	10	+3	14
7	Kheybar Khorramabad	10	+2	14
8	Gol Gohar	10	+1	13
9	Fajr Sepasi	9	−2	13
10	Chadormalu SC	10	−4	13
11	Nassaji Mazandaran	9	−2	10
12	Paykan	9	−3	9
13	Malavan	8	−4	8
14	ZOB Ahan	10	−4	8
15	Shams Azar Qazvin	9	−3	7
16	Sanat Naft	10	−10	7
17	Esteghlal Khuzestan	9	−9	6
18	Mes Shahr-e Babak	9	−9	5