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Paykan v Shams Azar Qazvin

Paykan

1–1Full time

Shams Azar Qazvin

Persian Gulf Pro League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Paykan 1–1 Shams Azar Qazvin DRAW · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said a draw~~37%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.594

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.726

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 37%.
3′Much as we predicted: the draw was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 37–35–28
3′KICK-OFF Paykan v Shams Azar Qazvin
41′M. Sourgi scores for Shams Azar Qazvin on 41′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 29–48–23
41′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Paykan
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Paykan 1–1 Shams Azar Qazvin
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Paykan 1–1 Shams Azar Qazvin
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 48% now
45′HALF-TIME Paykan 0–1 Shams Azar Qazvin
46′SECOND HALF Paykan 0–1 Shams Azar Qazvin
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Shams Azar Qazvin
52′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Shams Azar Qazvin
79′⚽ GOAL · 76' Paykan 1–1 Shams Azar Qazvin · A. Dehghan (assist J. Asadi)
80′⚽ GOAL · 76' Paykan 1–1 Shams Azar Qazvin · A. Dehghan (assist J. Asadi)
81′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Paykan · On: J. Asadi · Off: A. Shojaei
81′⚽ GOAL · 76' Paykan 1–1 Shams Azar Qazvin · A. Dehghan (assist J. Asadi)
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Shams Azar Qazvin · On: S. M. Hosseini · Off: A. Karami
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Shams Azar Qazvin
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Paykan
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Paykan
90′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Paykan
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Paykan · On: M. Sayyar · Off: F. Bagheri
90′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Paykan · On: M. Hakimzadeh · Off: S. Mohebi
FTFULL TIME Paykan 1–1 Shams Azar Qazvin
FTPaykan 1–1 Shams Azar Qazvin · Draw: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Paykan win36%

Draw37%

Shams Azar Qazvin win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:30

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawPublished 10 Oct 14:40

37% The market31%

Us37%

~~Market~~31%

We make the draw a 37% chance. The market has it at 31%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 30% to 31% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Paykan win	36%	42%	−6
Draw	37%	31%	+6
Shams Azar Qazvin win	27%	27%	0
Over 2.5 goals	25%	35%	−10
Both teams to score	34%	41%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	52%	62%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	10%	–	–
Paykan or draw	73%	73%	0
Paykan clean sheet	47%	–	–
Shams Azar Qazvin clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 20.3%

0123450 20.3 12.2 5.4 1 15.1 14.5 4.9 2 7.9 6.0 2.3 3 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Paykan down, Shams Azar Qazvin across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,199 Persian Gulf Pro League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Persian Gulf Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 25.4% of games this season, across 67 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Paykan at home: 0.50 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Shams Azar Qazvin away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Paykan, 0.77 for Shams Azar Qazvin. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~PAY 0–1 SHA · SHA 1–1 PAY · SHA 2–1 PAY · PAY 1–1 SHA

Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League

PAYKAN

DWDLWL0–0 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–1

SHAMS AZAR QAZVIN

DLWDLL1–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tractor Sazi	8	+7	17
2	Persepolis FC	7	+11	16
3	Esteghlal FC	8	+8	16
4	Sepahan FC	7	+6	13
5	Aluminium Arak	7	+5	13
6	Gol Gohar	8	+3	13
7	Foolad FC	7	+3	12
8	Nassaji Mazandaran	8	−2	9
9	Chadormalu SC	8	−5	9
10	Paykan	7	−1	8
11	Malavan	7	−3	8
12	Kheybar Khorramabad	7	0	7
13	ZOB Ahan	7	−2	7
14	Fajr Sepasi	7	−5	7
15	Esteghlal Khuzestan	8	−8	6
16	Shams Azar Qazvin	7	−3	5
17	Mes Shahr-e Babak	8	−6	5
18	Sanat Naft	8	−8	4