Nassaji Mazandaran v Fajr Sepasi prediction · Persian Gulf Pro League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Nassaji MazandaranDrawFajr Sepasi

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Draw 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Nassaji Mazandaran 33%, draw 37%, Fajr Sepasi 30%. Over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Nassaji Mazandaran v Fajr SepasiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Nassaji Mazandaran win33%

Draw37%

Fajr Sepasi win30%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:15

RoundMatchday 10

VenueVatani Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nassaji Mazandaran

Fajr Sepasi

7Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

Last match: 19 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Fajr Sepasi	9	−2	13
11	Nassaji Mazandaran	9	−2	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

37% The market31%

Us37%

~~Market~~31%

We make the draw a 37% chance. The market has it at 31%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nassaji Mazandaran v Fajr Sepasi~~0.92 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D3 L1 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 13~~11 v 9

~~The market · Draw~~31% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nassaji Mazandaran win	33%	35%	−2
Draw	37%	31%	+6
Fajr Sepasi win	30%	34%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	27%	32%	−5
Both teams to score	37%	40%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	56%	58%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	11%	16%	−5
Nassaji Mazandaran or draw	70%	66%	+4
Nassaji Mazandaran clean sheet	42%	–	–
Fajr Sepasi clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.8%

0123450 18.8 12.5 6.4 1 13.2 14.9 5.7 2 7.0 6.0 2.7 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nassaji Mazandaran down, Fajr Sepasi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,216 Persian Gulf Pro League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Persian Gulf Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.8% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nassaji Mazandaran at home: 0.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Fajr Sepasi away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for Nassaji Mazandaran, 0.88 for Fajr Sepasi. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~NAS 2–1 FAJ · FAJ 1–1 NAS · NAS 1–0 FAJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 28 Aug

NASSAJI MAZANDARAN

LWWDDD0–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

FAJR SEPASI

DDLLWW0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–6 · 2–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persepolis FC	9	+14	20
2	Tractor Sazi	9	+10	20
3	Esteghlal FC	10	+9	20
4	Sepahan FC	9	+7	17
5	Foolad FC	9	+4	16
6	Aluminium Arak	10	+3	14
7	Kheybar Khorramabad	10	+2	14
8	Gol Gohar	10	+1	13
9	Fajr Sepasi	9	−2	13
10	Chadormalu SC	10	−4	13
11	Nassaji Mazandaran	9	−2	10
12	Paykan	9	−3	9
13	Malavan	8	−4	8
14	ZOB Ahan	10	−4	8
15	Shams Azar Qazvin	9	−3	7
16	Sanat Naft	10	−10	7
17	Esteghlal Khuzestan	9	−9	6
18	Mes Shahr-e Babak	9	−9	5