Mes Shahr-e Babak v Persepolis FC prediction · Persian Gulf Pro League

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 15:31

Mes Shahr-e Babak 0–3 Persepolis FC PERSEPOLIS FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Persepolis FC win~~53%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.346

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.157

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Persepolis FC win at 53%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Persepolis FC 53% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 18–30–52
1′KICK-OFF Mes Shahr-e Babak v Persepolis FC
4′A goal for Persepolis FC on 4′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 6–12–82
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Mes Shahr-e Babak 0–1 Persepolis FC
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Persepolis FC win: 53% at kick-off, 82% now
5′We said Persepolis FC at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 0–1 · 6–12–82
7′GOAL DISALLOWED · 7' Persepolis FC
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 7' Persepolis FC win: 53% at kick-off, 51% now
24′Mes Shahr-e Babak are down to ten from 24′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 18–35–47
24′🟥 RED CARD · 24' Mes Shahr-e Babak
29′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Persepolis FC
33′A goal for Persepolis FC on 33′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 4–14–83
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Mes Shahr-e Babak 0–1 Persepolis FC
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Persepolis FC win: 53% at kick-off, 83% now
34′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 4–14–83
38′SUBSTITUTION · 37' Mes Shahr-e Babak · On: A. Enayatzadeh · Off: Z. Niknafs
45′HALF-TIME Mes Shahr-e Babak 0–1 Persepolis FC
46′SECOND HALF Mes Shahr-e Babak 0–1 Persepolis FC
53′We said Persepolis FC at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
55′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Mes Shahr-e Babak · On: A. Karbalaei · Off: A. Ghezel Corrected
55′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Mes Shahr-e Babak · On: A. Karbalaei · Off: A. Ghezel
55′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Persepolis FC · On: A. Jalali · Off: O. Urunov Corrected
55′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Persepolis FC · On: A. Jalali · Off: O. Urunov
72′We said Persepolis FC at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Mes Shahr-e Babak · On: M. Jannia · Off: G. Pouria
75′74′: E. Majid on the scoresheet for Persepolis FC, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Mes Shahr-e Babak 0–2 Persepolis FC · E. Majid (assist M. Mohebi)
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Persepolis FC win: 53% at kick-off, 99% now
76′We said Persepolis FC at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–99
78′We said Persepolis FC at 53% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Persepolis FC · On: D. Eiri · Off: M. Zare
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Persepolis FC · On: P. Shahrabadi · Off: A. Alipour
87′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Mes Shahr-e Babak · On: O. Nafez · Off: M. J. Pouravaz
87′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Mes Shahr-e Babak · On: M. Sefid · Off: M. Hasheminasab
91′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Persepolis FC · On: A. Mahmoudi · Off: T. Bifouma
91′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Persepolis FC · On: M. Sadeghi · Off: M. Tikdari
93′Persepolis FC find the net on 90′. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Mes Shahr-e Babak 0–3 Persepolis FC
94′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Mes Shahr-e Babak 0–3 Persepolis FC
FTMes Shahr-e Babak 0–3 Persepolis FC · Persepolis FC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Persepolis FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mes Shahr-e Babak 18%, draw 30%, Persepolis FC 53%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Mes Shahr-e Babak v Persepolis FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Mes Shahr-e Babak win18%

Draw30%

Persepolis FC win53%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 9

Line-ups

Mes Shahr-e Babak

Persepolis FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mes Shahr-e Babak

Persepolis FC

11Days since last match5

Last match: 8 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

Last match: 14 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Mes Shahr-e Babak

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Ghavidel

7 M. J. Pouravaz

6 M. Raoufimanesh

2 M. Tarhani

3 M. Mohammadi

71 G. Pouria

14 Z. Niknafs

8 M. Tajik

88 M. Hasheminasab

19 A. Ghezel

10 A. Valizadeh

Coach · –

Substitutes

5 · A. Enayatzadeh

17 · A. Karbalaei

24 · M. Jannia

77 · M. Sefid

79 · O. Nafez

Persepolis FC

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Niazmand

20 E. Majid

5 H. Abarghouei

4 M. Zare

8 M. Tikdari

10 M. Mohebi

66 P. Pourali

77 M. Khodabandelou

70 O. Urunov

9 A. Alipour

23 T. Bifouma

Coach · –

Substitutes

22 · A. Rafiei

3 · A. Jalali

89 · D. Eiri

33 · D. Gera

88 · M. Bakic

99 · P. Latififar

7 · M. Omri

21 · P. Shahrabadi

34 · A. Mahmoudi

45 · M. Sadeghi

11 · I. Sergeev

Our number · persepolis fc winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

53% The market68%

Us53%

~~Market~~68%

We make Persepolis FC a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mes Shahr-e Babak v Persepolis FC~~0.74 – 1.48

~~Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 24 Aug~~W0 D4 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 5 v 17~~18 v 1

~~The market · Persepolis FC win~~68% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Persepolis FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mes Shahr-e Babak win	18%	10%	+8
Draw	30%	22%	+8
Persepolis FC win	53%	68%	−15
Over 2.5 goals	38%	43%	−5
Both teams to score	41%	36%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	66%	67%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	19%	24%	−5
Mes Shahr-e Babak or draw	47%	32%	+15
Mes Shahr-e Babak clean sheet	24%	–	–
Persepolis FC clean sheet	48%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.1%

0123450 13.0 14.1 11.6 5.9 2.3 1 6.5 13.3 8.4 4.2 2 3.2 4.4 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mes Shahr-e Babak down, Persepolis FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,209 Persian Gulf Pro League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Persian Gulf Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.9% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2021/22.

Home and away form

Mes Shahr-e Babak at home: 0.75 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 4). Persepolis FC away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.74 goals for Mes Shahr-e Babak, 1.48 for Persepolis FC. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 24 Aug

MES SHAHR-E BABAK

DDDLDL1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

PERSEPOLIS FC

LWDWWD0–1 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persepolis FC	8	+11	17
2	Sepahan FC	9	+7	17
3	Tractor Sazi	8	+7	17
4	Esteghlal FC	8	+8	16
5	Foolad FC	9	+4	16
6	Aluminium Arak	9	+3	13
7	Gol Gohar	8	+3	13
8	Chadormalu SC	9	−4	12
9	Kheybar Khorramabad	9	+1	11
10	Nassaji Mazandaran	9	−2	10
11	Fajr Sepasi	8	−4	10
12	Paykan	8	−1	9
13	Malavan	8	−4	8
14	Shams Azar Qazvin	9	−3	7
15	ZOB Ahan	9	−4	7
16	Sanat Naft	9	−7	7
17	Esteghlal Khuzestan	9	−9	6
18	Mes Shahr-e Babak	8	−6	5