Malavan v Tractor Sazi prediction · Persian Gulf Pro League

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Tractor Sazi are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Malavan 19%, draw 32%, Tractor Sazi 49%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Malavan v Tractor SaziBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · postponed, not graded

Malavan win19%

Draw32%

Tractor Sazi win49%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueSirous Ghayeghran Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Malavan

Tractor Sazi

5Days since last match6

Last match: 13 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

Last match: 12 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Tractor Sazi	8	+7	17
13	Malavan	8	−4	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tractor sazi winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:42 · postponed, not graded

49% The market54%

Us49%

~~Market~~54%

We make Tractor Sazi a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Malavan v Tractor Sazi~~0.72 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 24 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 17~~13 v 2

~~The market · Tractor Sazi win~~54% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tractor Sazi win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Malavan win	19%	18%	+1
Draw	32%	28%	+4
Tractor Sazi win	49%	54%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	33%	34%	−1
Both teams to score	39%	44%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	62%	62%	0
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Malavan or draw	51%	46%	+5
Malavan clean sheet	28%	–	–
Tractor Sazi clean sheet	49%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.3%

0123450 15.3 15.3 11.1 4.9 1 7.9 13.9 7.8 3.5 2 3.5 4.4 2.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Malavan down, Tractor Sazi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,205 Persian Gulf Pro League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Persian Gulf Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 28.8% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.14 goals a meeting; 2 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Malavan at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Tractor Sazi away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.72 goals for Malavan, 1.31 for Tractor Sazi. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.14

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~MAL 1–1 TRA · TRA 3–0 MAL · MAL 0–2 TRA · TRA 3–1 MAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 24 Aug

MALAVAN

LLLWDL0–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

TRACTOR SAZI

WWDWLD1–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persepolis FC	8	+11	17
2	Tractor Sazi	8	+7	17
3	Esteghlal FC	8	+8	16
4	Sepahan FC	8	+7	16
5	Foolad FC	8	+4	15
6	Aluminium Arak	9	+3	13
7	Gol Gohar	8	+3	13
8	Fajr Sepasi	8	−4	10
9	Paykan	8	−1	9
10	Nassaji Mazandaran	8	−2	9
11	Chadormalu SC	8	−5	9
12	Kheybar Khorramabad	8	0	8
13	Malavan	8	−4	8
14	ZOB Ahan	8	−3	7
15	Sanat Naft	9	−7	7
16	Shams Azar Qazvin	8	−3	6
17	Esteghlal Khuzestan	8	−8	6
18	Mes Shahr-e Babak	8	−6	5