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Model 1.1

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Malavan v Foolad FC

Malavan
1–2Full time
Foolad FC

Persian Gulf Pro League · TUE 13 OCT · Takhti Stadium

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 17:00
Malavan 1–2 Foolad FC DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said a draw36%
The market said32%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.682
The market’s Brier score0.668

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 27 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 36%.
  2. 1′A goal for Malavan on 1′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 66–22–12
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Malavan v Foolad FC
  4. 1′⚽ GOAL · 1' Malavan 1–0 Foolad FC
  5. 1′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 1' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 22% now
  6. 1′THE CALL SWINGS · 1' Malavan win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 22%)
  7. 3′We said the draw at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 1–0 · 66–22–12
  8. 4′⚽ GOAL · 1' Malavan 1–0 Foolad FC
  9. 30′Goals are coming at about the 1.8 we expected. 1–0 · 70–22–8
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Malavan 1–0 Foolad FC
  11. 46′SECOND HALF Malavan 1–0 Foolad FC
  12. 47′E. Shahriari scores for Malavan on 4′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 75–20–5
  13. 53′We said the draw at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 77–19–4
  14. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Malavan
  15. 62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Foolad FC · On: A. Bagheri · Off: Y. Mazrae
  16. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Foolad FC · On: G. Latifi · Off: A. Jolani
  17. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
  18. 70′We said the draw at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 84–14–2
  19. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Foolad FC · On: G. Latifi · Off: A. Jolani
  20. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Foolad FC · On: A. Bagheri · Off: Y. Mazrae
  21. 79′We said the draw at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  22. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Foolad FC · On: A. Bagheri · Off: Y. Mazrae
  23. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Foolad FC · On: A. Bagheri · Off: Y. Mazrae
  24. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Foolad FC · On: M. Kazemi · Off: S. Ansari
  25. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Foolad FC · On: V. Amiri · Off: M. Mohammadi
  26. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Foolad FC · On: A. Attar · Off: M. Sarlak
  27. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
  28. 85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Malavan 1–1 Foolad FC
  29. 86′85′ and it is 1–1: V. Amiri on the scoresheet for Foolad FC. 1–1 · 5–91–5
  30. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 91% now
  31. 86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 91% (was Malavan win 5%)
  32. 88′88′ and it is 1–1: V. Amiri on the scoresheet for Foolad FC. 1–1 · 4–92–4
  33. 89′🟥 RED CARD · 89' Malavan
  34. 90′A red card for Malavan on 89′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 3–94–3
  35. 90′We published the draw at 36%. Our model now makes it 94%. 1–1 · 3–94–3
  36. 90′Foolad FC ahead on 90′ through A. Attar. 1–2. 1–2 · 0–3–97
  37. 90′We said the draw at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 1–2 · 0–3–97
  38. 90′That is 3, and we only asked for 1.8 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–3–97
  39. 90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Malavan 1–2 Foolad FC
  40. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 3% now
  41. 90′THE CALL SWINGS · 90' Foolad FC win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
  42. FTFULL TIME Malavan 1–2 Foolad FC
  43. FTMalavan 1–2 Foolad FC · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –
2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –
3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –
The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 14:12 · locked at kick-off

Malavan win31%
Draw36%
Foolad FC win33%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 14:30

VenueTakhti Stadium

Line-ups

Malavan

Foolad FC

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Malavan

Foolad FC

5Days since last match5
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Foolad FC7+312
11Malavan7−38

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Malavan

Formation not confirmed

98 F. Tayebipour

27 E. Shahriari

30 M. Beheshti

28 A. Karimi

4 A. Afsordeh

75 A. Nesaei

81 J. Hosseinpour

5 Z. Saadavi

10 G. Eslamikhah

99 A. Ramezani

90 H. Sadeghi

Coach · Maziar Zare

Substitutes

– · V. Asgarpour

– · A. Khoshkafa

– · I. Jalilpour

7 · F. Jafari

11 · M. Sadeghi

12 · A. Sedaghat

14 · M. Rafiei

20 · M. Papi

23 · M. Moghadri

77 · B. Barzay

92 · A. Amirzadeh

Foolad FC

Formation not confirmed

81 H. Lak

3 S. Ansari

– A. Akvan

5 A. Saedi

2 A. Razzaghpour

30 A. Akbarzadeh

– M. Sarlak

78 A. Jolani

7 M. Mohammadi

20 Y. Mazrae

9 E. Mahrooghi

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · M. Forouzan

6 · O. Hamedifar

11 · V. Amiri

21 · M. Moradi

23 · A. Bagheri

26 · M. Kazemi

29 · G. Latifi

70 · A. Attar

77 · M. Keshavarzi

90 · S. A. Hosseini

Our number · drawFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 14:12 · locked at kick-off
36% The market32%
Us36%
Market32%

We make the draw a 36% chance. The market has it at 32%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published
25%30%35%40% 9 OCT 06:1913 OCT 05:38
Our probability · draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Malavan win31%35%−4
Draw36%32%+4
Foolad FC win33%33%−1
Over 2.5 goals28%33%−5
Both teams to score37%41%−4
Over 1.5 goals56%58%−2
Over 3.5 goals12%16%−5
Malavan or draw67%67%+1
Malavan clean sheet40%––
Foolad FC clean sheet41%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.2%
0123450 18.2 13.0 6.9 2.2 1 12.6 14.9 6.1 2 6.5 5.9 2.7 3 2.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Malavan down, Foolad FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022
Goals a meeting2.62
Over 2.54 of 8
Both scored5 of 8
Last meetingsMAL 2–2 FOO · FOO 0–1 MAL · MAL 1–1 FOO · FOO 2–1 MAL

Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League

MALAVAN

WLLLWD2–1 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–1

FOOLAD FC

DWDLWW1–1 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Tractor Sazi8+717
2Persepolis FC7+1116
3Esteghlal FC8+816
4Sepahan FC7+613
5Aluminium Arak7+513
6Gol Gohar8+313
7Foolad FC7+312
8Paykan8−19
9Nassaji Mazandaran8−29
10Chadormalu SC8−59
11Malavan7−38
12Kheybar Khorramabad707
13ZOB Ahan7−27
14Fajr Sepasi7−57
15Shams Azar Qazvin8−36
16Esteghlal Khuzestan8−86
17Mes Shahr-e Babak8−65
18Sanat Naft8−84

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.