Kheybar Khorramabad v Sepahan FC prediction · Persian Gulf Pro League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Kheybar KhorramabadDrawSepahan FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sepahan FC 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sepahan FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kheybar Khorramabad 22%, draw 32%, Sepahan FC 46%. Over 2.5 goals 36%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Kheybar Khorramabad v Sepahan FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Kheybar Khorramabad win22%

Draw32%

Sepahan FC win46%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueTakhti Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kheybar Khorramabad

Sepahan FC

7Days since last match12

Last match: 23 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

Last match: 18 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Sepahan FC	9	+7	17
7	Kheybar Khorramabad	10	+2	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sepahan fc winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Sepahan FC a 46% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kheybar Khorramabad v Sepahan FC~~0.84 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 14 v 17~~7 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kheybar Khorramabad win	22%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Sepahan FC win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	36%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	17%	–	–
Kheybar Khorramabad or draw	54%	–	–
Kheybar Khorramabad clean sheet	28%	–	–
Sepahan FC clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.4%

0123450 13.9 13.3 9.9 4.4 1 8.0 14.4 8.1 3.6 2 4.2 5.3 3.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kheybar Khorramabad down, Sepahan FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,216 Persian Gulf Pro League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Persian Gulf Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.8% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kheybar Khorramabad at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sepahan FC away: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.84 goals for Kheybar Khorramabad, 1.31 for Sepahan FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~SEP 1–0 KHE · SEP 1–3 KHE · KHE 0–1 SEP · SEP 2–0 KHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 28 Aug

KHEYBAR KHORRAMABAD

WLDDWW2–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

SEPAHAN FC

WDWWWD2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 6–1 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persepolis FC	9	+14	20
2	Tractor Sazi	9	+10	20
3	Esteghlal FC	10	+9	20
4	Sepahan FC	9	+7	17
5	Foolad FC	9	+4	16
6	Aluminium Arak	10	+3	14
7	Kheybar Khorramabad	10	+2	14
8	Gol Gohar	10	+1	13
9	Fajr Sepasi	9	−2	13
10	Chadormalu SC	10	−4	13
11	Nassaji Mazandaran	9	−2	10
12	Paykan	9	−3	9
13	Malavan	8	−4	8
14	ZOB Ahan	10	−4	8
15	Shams Azar Qazvin	9	−3	7
16	Sanat Naft	10	−10	7
17	Esteghlal Khuzestan	9	−9	6
18	Mes Shahr-e Babak	9	−9	5