Kheybar Khorramabad v Esteghlal Khuzestan

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Kheybar Khorramabad win at 44%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Kheybar Khorramabad 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–34–22
3. 1′KICK-OFF Kheybar Khorramabad v Esteghlal Khuzestan
4. 3′Kheybar Khorramabad find the net on 3′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–15–7
5. 3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Kheybar Khorramabad 1–0 Esteghlal Khuzestan
6. 3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Kheybar Khorramabad win: 44% at kick-off, 78% now
7. 4′We said Kheybar Khorramabad at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–15–7
8. 29′SUBSTITUTION · 16' Esteghlal Khuzestan · On: M. Kia · Off: M. A. Rezaei
9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.0 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–5
10. 37′We said Kheybar Khorramabad at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
11. 45′A goal for Esteghlal Khuzestan on 45′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 34–47–19
12. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 41' Kheybar Khorramabad · On: A. Maleki · Off: I. Moradi
13. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45+6' Kheybar Khorramabad 1–1 Esteghlal Khuzestan
14. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Kheybar Khorramabad win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
15. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Kheybar Khorramabad win 34%)
16. 45′HALF-TIME Kheybar Khorramabad 1–1 Esteghlal Khuzestan
17. 46′SECOND HALF Kheybar Khorramabad 1–1 Esteghlal Khuzestan
18. 48′We said Kheybar Khorramabad at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 32–49–19
19. 51′Kheybar Khorramabad find the net on 50′. 2–2. 2–2 · 31–51–18
20. 51′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.0 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 31–51–18
21. 51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Kheybar Khorramabad 2–2 Esteghlal Khuzestan
22. 52′Esteghlal Khuzestan score on 50′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 7–23–69 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
23. 52′We said Kheybar Khorramabad at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 7%. 1–2 · 7–23–69 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
24. 53′Kheybar Khorramabad find the net on 52′. 2–2. 2–2 · 30–52–18
25. 55′We said Kheybar Khorramabad at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–53–17
26. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Kheybar Khorramabad · On: F. Yousefi · Off: A. Farsi
27. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Kheybar Khorramabad · On: H. Shanani · Off: M. Ghanbari
28. 64′We said Kheybar Khorramabad at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–61–15
29. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Kheybar Khorramabad win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
30. 71′We said Kheybar Khorramabad at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–69–12
31. 77′We said Kheybar Khorramabad at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–77–9
32. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Kheybar Khorramabad win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
33. 78′52′: A. Farsi on the scoresheet for Kheybar Khorramabad, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 91–8–0
34. 79′We said Kheybar Khorramabad at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–1 · 92–8–0
35. 79′3 goals already, more than the 2.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 92–8–0
36. 79′GOAL DISALLOWED · 79' Esteghlal Khuzestan
37. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Kheybar Khorramabad win: 44% at kick-off, 92% now
38. 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Kheybar Khorramabad win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 8%)
39. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Kheybar Khorramabad win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
40. 83′We said Kheybar Khorramabad at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
41. FTFULL TIME Kheybar Khorramabad 2–1 Esteghlal Khuzestan
42. FTKheybar Khorramabad 2–1 Esteghlal Khuzestan · Kheybar Khorramabad win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.