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Gol Gohar v Kheybar Khorramabad

Gol Gohar

0–1Full time

Kheybar Khorramabad

Persian Gulf Pro League · FRI 23 OCT · Gol Gohar Sport Complex

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:02

Gol Gohar 0–1 Kheybar Khorramabad GOL GOHAR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Gol Gohar win~~44%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.911

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.795

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Gol Gohar win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Gol Gohar 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–33–22
1′KICK-OFF Gol Gohar v Kheybar Khorramabad
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Gol Gohar win 39%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Gol Gohar win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′HALF-TIME Gol Gohar 0–0 Kheybar Khorramabad
46′Gol Gohar are down to ten from 43′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 33–47–19
46′SUBSTITUTION · 26' Gol Gohar · On: L. Ben Hassine · Off: M. Goudarzi
46′🟥 RED CARD · 43' A. Ashouri · Gol Gohar
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+6' S. D. Baghaki · Kheybar Khorramabad
46′SECOND HALF Gol Gohar 0–0 Kheybar Khorramabad
49′We said Gol Gohar at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–49–19
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kheybar Khorramabad · On: H. Shanani · Off: S. D. Baghaki
54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Gol Gohar · On: S. Sahraei · Off: M. Najjarian
56′We said Gol Gohar at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–54–17
57′Kheybar Khorramabad score on 57′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 6–23–71
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Gol Gohar 0–1 Kheybar Khorramabad
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Gol Gohar win: 44% at kick-off, 6% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Kheybar Khorramabad win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 54%)
58′We said Gol Gohar at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 0–1 · 6–22–72
59′The goal count is tracking the 2.0 we expected. 0–1 · 5–22–73
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Gol Gohar win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
64′We said Gol Gohar at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–75
74′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Kheybar Khorramabad · On: A. Teymouri · Off: A. M. Khanzadi
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Kheybar Khorramabad
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Kheybar Khorramabad · On: A. Farsi · Off: M. Ghanbari Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Gol Gohar · On: M. Kazemian · Off: M. Aliyari
77′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Gol Gohar · On: O. Alishah · Off: M. Masoumi
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Gol Gohar
77′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Kheybar Khorramabad · On: S. Pasandideh · Off: A. Safarzadeh
78′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Gol Gohar · On: M. Fakhrian · Off: M. Abbasi
78′🟨 YELLOW · 61' S. Sahraei · Gol Gohar
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Kheybar Khorramabad
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Kheybar Khorramabad
95′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Kheybar Khorramabad · On: S. Khadempour · Off: E. Babaei
FTFULL TIME Gol Gohar 0–1 Kheybar Khorramabad
FTGol Gohar 0–1 Kheybar Khorramabad · Gol Gohar win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gol Gohar are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gol Gohar 44%, draw 33%, Kheybar Khorramabad 22%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Gol Gohar v Kheybar KhorramabadBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Gol Gohar win44%

Draw33%

Kheybar Khorramabad win22%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueGol Gohar Sport Complex

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gol Gohar

Kheybar Khorramabad

4Days since last match5

Last match: 19 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

Last match: 18 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Gol Gohar	9	+2	13
10	Kheybar Khorramabad	9	+1	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gol gohar winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 23 Oct 04:18 · locked at kick-off

44% The market43%

Us44%

~~Market~~43%

We make Gol Gohar a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gol Gohar v Kheybar Khorramabad~~1.24 – 0.80

~~Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 11~~7 v 10

~~The market · Gol Gohar win~~43% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Gol Gohar win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gol Gohar win	44%	43%	+1
Draw	33%	30%	+3
Kheybar Khorramabad win	22%	28%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	33%	41%	−8
Both teams to score	41%	47%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	62%	65%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	15%	23%	−8
Gol Gohar or draw	78%	72%	+6
Gol Gohar clean sheet	45%	–	–
Kheybar Khorramabad clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.2%

0123450 15.2 8.6 4.2 1 14.1 14.5 5.1 2 9.9 7.8 3.1 3 4.1 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gol Gohar down, Kheybar Khorramabad across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,213 Persian Gulf Pro League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Persian Gulf Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 30.9% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gol Gohar at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Kheybar Khorramabad away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Gol Gohar, 0.80 for Kheybar Khorramabad. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~KHE 0–0 GOL · GOL 2–0 KHE · GOL 0–0 KHE · KHE 0–0 GOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 28 Aug

GOL GOHAR

LLLWWL0–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 3–0 · 0–1

KHEYBAR KHORRAMABAD

DWLDDW2–2 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persepolis FC	9	+14	20
2	Tractor Sazi	9	+10	20
3	Esteghlal FC	9	+9	19
4	Sepahan FC	9	+7	17
5	Foolad FC	9	+4	16
6	Aluminium Arak	9	+3	13
7	Gol Gohar	9	+2	13
8	Fajr Sepasi	9	−2	13
9	Chadormalu SC	9	−4	12
10	Kheybar Khorramabad	9	+1	11
11	Nassaji Mazandaran	9	−2	10
12	Paykan	9	−3	9
13	Malavan	8	−4	8
14	Shams Azar Qazvin	9	−3	7
15	ZOB Ahan	9	−4	7
16	Sanat Naft	10	−10	7
17	Esteghlal Khuzestan	9	−9	6
18	Mes Shahr-e Babak	9	−9	5