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Model 1.2

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Foolad FC v Nassaji Mazandaran

Foolad FC
0–0Full time
Nassaji Mazandaran

Persian Gulf Pro League · SUN 18 OCT · Foolad Arena

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31
Foolad FC 0–0 Nassaji Mazandaran FOOLAD FC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Foolad FC win47%
The market said57%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.688
The market’s Brier score0.839

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 20 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Foolad FC win at 47%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Foolad FC 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–35–18
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Foolad FC v Nassaji Mazandaran
  4. 21′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Nassaji Mazandaran
  5. 34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Foolad FC win 39%)
  6. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Foolad FC win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
  7. 44′We said Foolad FC at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 35–49–16
  8. 45′HALF-TIME Foolad FC 0–0 Nassaji Mazandaran
  9. 46′We said Foolad FC at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–50–16
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Foolad FC 0–0 Nassaji Mazandaran
  11. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Foolad FC
  12. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 47' Foolad FC · On: M. Mohammadi · Off: F. Ahmadzadeh
  13. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 48' Nassaji Mazandaran · On: I. Akbari · Off: A. Nasiri
  14. 58′We said Foolad FC at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–0 · 28–58–14
  15. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Foolad FC win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
  16. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Foolad FC · On: Y. Mazrae · Off: A. Bagheri
  17. 65′We said Foolad FC at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–64–12
  18. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Foolad FC · On: K. Latifi · Off: A. Jolani
  19. 72′We said Foolad FC at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–72–9
  20. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Foolad FC win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
  21. 77′We said Foolad FC at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–78–7
  22. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Foolad FC · On: A. Abolfazlzadeh · Off: M. Sarlak
  23. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Nassaji Mazandaran · On: F. Najafi · Off: J. Aghaeipour
  24. 82′We said Foolad FC at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–86–5
  25. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Foolad FC
  26. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Foolad FC win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
  27. 89′We said Foolad FC at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–2
  28. 96′SUBSTITUTION · 38' Nassaji Mazandaran · On: Y. Barajeh · Off: B. Norouzifard
  29. 96′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Foolad FC · On: V. Amiri · Off: E. Mahrooghi
  30. FTFULL TIME Foolad FC 0–0 Nassaji Mazandaran
  31. FTFoolad FC 0–0 Nassaji Mazandaran · Foolad FC win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Foolad FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Foolad FC 47%, draw 34%, Nassaji Mazandaran 18%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 34%.

The AI’s read on Foolad FC v Nassaji MazandaranBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Foolad FC win47%
Draw34%
Nassaji Mazandaran win18%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 16:45

RoundMatchday 9

VenueFoolad Arena

Line-ups

Foolad FC

Nassaji Mazandaran

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Foolad FC

Nassaji Mazandaran

5Days since last match10

Last match: 13 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

Last match: 8 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Foolad FC8+415
10Nassaji Mazandaran8−29

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Foolad FC

Formation not confirmed

81 H. Lak

3 S. Ansari

– A. Akvan

5 A. Saedi

2 A. Razzaghpour

30 A. Akbarzadeh

66 M. Sarlak

78 A. Jolani

9 E. Mahrooghi

23 A. Bagheri

10 F. Ahmadzadeh

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · M. Forouzan

6 · O. Hamedifar

7 · M. Mohammadi

11 · V. Amiri

13 · M. Badragheh

20 · Y. Mazrae

21 · M. Moradi

26 · M. Kazemi

29 · G. Latifi

70 · A. Attar

77 · M. Keshavarzi

Nassaji Mazandaran

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Jafarpour

2 A. Koohi

26 B. Norouzifard

3 H. Rabizadeh

17 A. Arasteh

24 A. Nasiri

6 A. Sarabadani

14 P. Rezazadeh

46 F. Emamali

9 J. Aghaeipour

8 A. Sadeghi

Coach · –

Substitutes

– · I. Akbari

– · Y. Barajeh

87 · A. Sheikhirad

10 · A. Mohammadnejad

19 · A. Mahdavikia

20 · A. Aarabi

22 · O. Amiri

72 · M. Hosseinzadehfard

77 · F. Najafi

99 · K. Ezhdehakosh

Our number · foolad fc winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
47% The market57%
Us47%
Market57%

We make Foolad FC a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Foolad FC v Nassaji Mazandaran1.19 – 0.63
Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 23 AugW4 D1 L1 · W2 D3 L1
Table places · points 15 v 95 v 10
The market · Foolad FC win57% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 12 OCT 04:0218 OCT 16:22
Our probability · Foolad FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Foolad FC win47%57%−10
Draw34%29%+5
Nassaji Mazandaran win18%14%+4
Over 2.5 goals28%27%+1
Both teams to score34%30%+4
Over 1.5 goals56%53%+3
Over 3.5 goals11%12%−1
Foolad FC or draw82%86%−4
Foolad FC clean sheet53%––
Nassaji Mazandaran clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.3%
0123450 18.3 8.6 3.3 1 17.4 13.6 3.8 2 11.3 7.0 2.3 3 4.5 2.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Foolad FC down, Nassaji Mazandaran across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.62
Over 2.51 of 8
Both scored2 of 8
Last meetingsFOO 1–0 NAS · NAS 0–1 FOO · NAS 0–1 FOO · FOO 1–0 NAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 23 Aug

FOOLAD FC

WDLWWW3–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1

NASSAJI MAZANDARAN

DLWWDD1–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Persepolis FC8+1117
2Tractor Sazi8+717
3Esteghlal FC8+816
4Sepahan FC8+716
5Foolad FC8+415
6Aluminium Arak9+313
7Gol Gohar8+313
8Fajr Sepasi8−410
9Paykan8−19
10Nassaji Mazandaran8−29
11Chadormalu SC8−59
12Kheybar Khorramabad808
13Malavan8−48
14ZOB Ahan8−37
15Sanat Naft9−77
16Shams Azar Qazvin8−36
17Esteghlal Khuzestan8−86
18Mes Shahr-e Babak8−65

The competition's standings before kick-off.