Foolad FC v Aluminium Arak prediction · Persian Gulf Pro League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Foolad FCDrawAluminium Arak

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Foolad FC 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Foolad FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Foolad FC 41%, draw 36%, Aluminium Arak 23%. Over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Foolad FC v Aluminium ArakBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Foolad FC win41%

Draw36%

Aluminium Arak win23%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueFoolad Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Foolad FC

Aluminium Arak

12Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

Last match: 23 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Foolad FC	9	+4	16
6	Aluminium Arak	10	+3	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · foolad fc winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Foolad FC a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.7, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 19%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Foolad FC v Aluminium Arak~~1.06 – 0.72

~~Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 16 v 14~~5 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Foolad FC win	41%	–	–
Draw	36%	–	–
Aluminium Arak win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	27%	–	–
Both teams to score	35%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	55%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	11%	–	–
Foolad FC or draw	77%	–	–
Foolad FC clean sheet	49%	–	–
Aluminium Arak clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 19.0%

0123450 19.0 10.2 4.4 1 15.8 14.5 4.6 2 9.4 6.7 2.4 3 3.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Foolad FC down, Aluminium Arak across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,216 Persian Gulf Pro League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Persian Gulf Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.8% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.22 goals a meeting; 3 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Foolad FC at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Aluminium Arak away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Foolad FC, 0.72 for Aluminium Arak. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.22

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 9

~~Both scored~~3 of 9

~~Last meetings~~FOO 0–0 ALU · FOO 2–0 ALU · ALU 4–2 FOO · ALU 1–1 FOO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 28 Aug

FOOLAD FC

DLWWWD0–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0

ALUMINIUM ARAK

WDDLLD2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persepolis FC	9	+14	20
2	Tractor Sazi	9	+10	20
3	Esteghlal FC	10	+9	20
4	Sepahan FC	9	+7	17
5	Foolad FC	9	+4	16
6	Aluminium Arak	10	+3	14
7	Kheybar Khorramabad	10	+2	14
8	Gol Gohar	10	+1	13
9	Fajr Sepasi	9	−2	13
10	Chadormalu SC	10	−4	13
11	Nassaji Mazandaran	9	−2	10
12	Paykan	9	−3	9
13	Malavan	8	−4	8
14	ZOB Ahan	10	−4	8
15	Shams Azar Qazvin	9	−3	7
16	Sanat Naft	10	−10	7
17	Esteghlal Khuzestan	9	−9	6
18	Mes Shahr-e Babak	9	−9	5