Fajr Sepasi v Tractor Sazi prediction · Persian Gulf Pro League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Fajr SepasiDrawTractor Sazi

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Tractor Sazi 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tractor Sazi are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fajr Sepasi 19%, draw 31%, Tractor Sazi 51%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Fajr Sepasi v Tractor SaziBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Fajr Sepasi win19%

Draw31%

Tractor Sazi win51%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 13:15

RoundMatchday 11

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fajr Sepasi

Tractor Sazi

10Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

Last match: 22 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Tractor Sazi	9	+10	20
9	Fajr Sepasi	9	−2	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tractor sazi winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Tractor Sazi a 51% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.4, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fajr Sepasi v Tractor Sazi~~0.76 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 20~~9 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fajr Sepasi win	19%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Tractor Sazi win	51%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	37%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Fajr Sepasi or draw	49%	–	–
Fajr Sepasi clean sheet	25%	–	–
Tractor Sazi clean sheet	47%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.1%

0123450 13.5 14.1 11.2 5.4 2.1 1 7.0 13.7 8.3 4.0 2 3.4 4.6 3.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fajr Sepasi down, Tractor Sazi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,216 Persian Gulf Pro League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Persian Gulf Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.8% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fajr Sepasi at home: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Tractor Sazi away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.76 goals for Fajr Sepasi, 1.42 for Tractor Sazi. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~FAJ 2–1 TRA · TRA 0–0 FAJ · TRA 2–1 FAJ · FAJ 1–1 TRA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 28 Aug

FAJR SEPASI

DDLLWW0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–6 · 2–1 · 2–0

TRACTOR SAZI

WDWLDW2–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persepolis FC	9	+14	20
2	Tractor Sazi	9	+10	20
3	Esteghlal FC	10	+9	20
4	Sepahan FC	9	+7	17
5	Foolad FC	9	+4	16
6	Aluminium Arak	10	+3	14
7	Kheybar Khorramabad	10	+2	14
8	Gol Gohar	10	+1	13
9	Fajr Sepasi	9	−2	13
10	Chadormalu SC	10	−4	13
11	Nassaji Mazandaran	9	−2	10
12	Paykan	9	−3	9
13	Malavan	8	−4	8
14	ZOB Ahan	10	−4	8
15	Shams Azar Qazvin	9	−3	7
16	Sanat Naft	10	−10	7
17	Esteghlal Khuzestan	9	−9	6
18	Mes Shahr-e Babak	9	−9	5