Fajr Sepasi v Paykan prediction · Persian Gulf Pro League

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 17:01

Fajr Sepasi 2–0 Paykan FAJR SEPASI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fajr Sepasi win~~38%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.583

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.611

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fajr Sepasi win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Fajr Sepasi was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–37–26
1′KICK-OFF Fajr Sepasi v Paykan
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Fajr Sepasi win 37%)
42′Fajr Sepasi find the net on 42′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–17–4
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Fajr Sepasi 1–0 Paykan
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Fajr Sepasi win: 38% at kick-off, 78% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Fajr Sepasi win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 49%)
43′We published Fajr Sepasi at 38%. Our model now makes it 79%. 1–0 · 79–17–4
44′Goals are coming at about the 1.8 we expected. 1–0 · 79–17–4
45′HALF-TIME Fajr Sepasi 1–0 Paykan
46′Fajr Sepasi ahead on 41′ through S. Fadakar. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–17–4
46′🟨 YELLOW · 44' E. Pahlevan · Fajr Sepasi
46′SECOND HALF Fajr Sepasi 1–0 Paykan
48′We published Fajr Sepasi at 38%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
64′We published Fajr Sepasi at 38%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Fajr Sepasi win: 38% at kick-off, 88% now
75′We published Fajr Sepasi at 38%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
77′A goal for Fajr Sepasi on 76′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
77′We published Fajr Sepasi at 38%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Fajr Sepasi 2–0 Paykan
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Fajr Sepasi win: 38% at kick-off, 99% now
78′We published Fajr Sepasi at 38%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Paykan
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Paykan
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Fajr Sepasi
84′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Paykan · On: F. Bagheri · Off: S. Mohebi
85′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Fajr Sepasi · On: F. Arab · Off: S. Fadakar
85′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Fajr Sepasi · On: A. Moredi · Off: M. Sharifi
86′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Paykan · On: M. Sayyar · Off: M. Najafi
86′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Paykan · On: J. Asadi · Off: E. Jamshidi
86′🟨 YELLOW · 52' A. Gholami · Paykan
86′🟨 YELLOW · 71' M. Nasiri · Fajr Sepasi
87′🟨 YELLOW · 73' R. Shekari · Paykan
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Paykan
93′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Fajr Sepasi · On: M. Faramarzi · Off: A. Vosoughifard
FTFULL TIME Fajr Sepasi 2–0 Paykan
FTFajr Sepasi 2–0 Paykan · Fajr Sepasi win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Fajr Sepasi just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Fajr Sepasi 38%, draw 36%, Paykan 26%. Over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Fajr Sepasi v PaykanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Fajr Sepasi win38%

Draw36%

Paykan win26%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 14:15

RoundMatchday 9

Line-ups

Fajr Sepasi

Paykan

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fajr Sepasi

Paykan

6Days since last match9

Last match: 13 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

Last match: 10 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Fajr Sepasi	8	−4	10
12	Paykan	8	−1	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Fajr Sepasi

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Gholamzadeh

7 E. Pahlevan

77 S. Fadakar

5 M. Nasiri

2 A. Vosoughifard

11 M. Moradi

6 M. Rigi

17 H. Shahabi

12 S. Tavakoli

9 M. Sharifi

10 Y. Rostami

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · A. Helichi

15 · D. Jahanbakhsh

16 · M. Bahraminejad

18 · M. Rezaei

27 · M. Faramarzi

29 · A. Moredi

70 · H. Nokhodkar

76 · A. Shabani

80 · E. Falamarzi

98 · A. Rezaei

99 · F. Arab

Paykan

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Pourhamidi

18 A. Madadizadeh

5 M. Bagheri

6 S. Mohebi

2 A. Gholami

8 M. Najafi

10 R. Shekari

66 A. Dehghan

11 F. Amiri

77 E. Jamshidi

72 H. Shoushtari

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · A. Shojaei

13 · A. Abbasi

14 · F. Bagheri

15 · M. Sayyar

29 · M. Mashayekh

47 · A. Radin

55 · A. Fathi

61 · J. Asadi

70 · I. Karami

80 · M. Hakimzadeh

88 · E. Hadian

Our number · fajr sepasi winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 14 Oct 04:42 · locked at kick-off

38% The market36%

Us38%

~~Market~~36%

We make Fajr Sepasi a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fajr Sepasi v Paykan~~1.02 – 0.79

~~Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 24 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 9~~11 v 12

~~The market · Fajr Sepasi win~~36% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Fajr Sepasi win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fajr Sepasi win	38%	36%	+2
Draw	36%	30%	+6
Paykan win	26%	34%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	27%	39%	−12
Both teams to score	36%	46%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	55%	64%	−9
Over 3.5 goals	11%	20%	−9
Fajr Sepasi or draw	74%	66%	+8
Fajr Sepasi clean sheet	46%	–	–
Paykan clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.8%

0123450 18.8 11.0 5.1 1 14.7 14.8 5.1 2 8.5 6.5 2.6 3 2.9 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fajr Sepasi down, Paykan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,209 Persian Gulf Pro League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Persian Gulf Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.9% of games this season, across 77 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fajr Sepasi at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Paykan away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.02 goals for Fajr Sepasi, 0.79 for Paykan. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~PAY 2–2 FAJ · PAY 1–1 FAJ · FAJ 0–2 PAY · FAJ 1–1 PAY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 24 Aug

FAJR SEPASI

WDDLLW1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–6 · 2–1

PAYKAN

WDLWLD3–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persepolis FC	8	+11	17
2	Sepahan FC	9	+7	17
3	Tractor Sazi	8	+7	17
4	Esteghlal FC	8	+8	16
5	Foolad FC	9	+4	16
6	Aluminium Arak	9	+3	13
7	Gol Gohar	8	+3	13
8	Chadormalu SC	9	−4	12
9	Kheybar Khorramabad	9	+1	11
10	Nassaji Mazandaran	9	−2	10
11	Fajr Sepasi	8	−4	10
12	Paykan	8	−1	9
13	Malavan	8	−4	8
14	Shams Azar Qazvin	9	−3	7
15	ZOB Ahan	9	−4	7
16	Sanat Naft	9	−7	7
17	Esteghlal Khuzestan	9	−9	6
18	Mes Shahr-e Babak	8	−6	5