Fajr Sepasi v Aluminium Arak prediction · Persian Gulf Pro League

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 17:00

Fajr Sepasi 2–1 Aluminium Arak DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said a draw~~36%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.691

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.457

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: the draw was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 33% now. 0–0 · 34–33–34
1′KICK-OFF Fajr Sepasi v Aluminium Arak
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 47% now
44′We published the draw at 36%. Our model now makes it 48%. 0–0 · 26–48–26
45′HALF-TIME Fajr Sepasi 0–0 Aluminium Arak
46′SECOND HALF Fajr Sepasi 0–0 Aluminium Arak
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Fajr Sepasi 1–0 Aluminium Arak
48′Fajr Sepasi find the net on 47′. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–20–5
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 20% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Fajr Sepasi win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 20%)
50′We said the draw at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
50′⚽ GOAL · 47' Fajr Sepasi 1–0 Aluminium Arak · F. Arab
52′We said the draw at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 77–19–4
54′Goals are coming at about the 1.8 we expected. 1–0 · 77–19–4
57′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Aluminium Arak · On: A. Amanipour · Off: M. Motlaghzadeh
57′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Aluminium Arak · On: A. Sadeghi · Off: B. Goudarzi
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Aluminium Arak · On: R. Jubere · Off: A. Vatandoust
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
69′We said the draw at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 84–14–2
76′A goal for Fajr Sepasi on 76′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Aluminium Arak
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Fajr Sepasi 2–0 Aluminium Arak
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 1% now
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Fajr Sepasi 2–0 Aluminium Arak · F. Arab
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Aluminium Arak · On: R. Zolfipour · Off: A. Ghanbari
79′We said the draw at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Fajr Sepasi
90′90′ and it is 2–1: Aluminium Arak have scored. 2–1 · 97–3–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Fajr Sepasi 2–1 Aluminium Arak
FTFULL TIME Fajr Sepasi 2–1 Aluminium Arak
FTFajr Sepasi 2–1 Aluminium Arak · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 14:12 · locked at kick-off

Fajr Sepasi win32%

Draw36%

Aluminium Arak win32%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 14:30

VenueHafezieh Stadium

Line-ups

Fajr Sepasi

Aluminium Arak

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Fajr Sepasi

Aluminium Arak

5Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Aluminium Arak	7	+5	13
14	Fajr Sepasi	7	−5	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Fajr Sepasi

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Gholamzadeh

7 E. Pahlevan

77 S. Fadakar

5 M. Nasiri

2 A. Vosoughifard

11 M. Moradi

6 M. Rigi

17 H. Shahabi

14 S. Tavakoli

9 M. Sharifi

10 Y. Rostami

Coach · –

Substitutes

3 · A. Helichi

15 · D. Jahanbakhsh

16 · M. Bahraminejad

18 · M. Rezaei

27 · M. Faramarzi

29 · A. Moredi

70 · H. Nokhodkar

76 · A. Shabani

80 · E. Falamarzi

98 · A. Rezaei

99 · F. Arab

Aluminium Arak

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Khalifeh

8 A. Ghanbari

44 S. Jafarikia

15 M. Mousavi

2 B. Goudarzi

22 S. Shahabbasi

6 M. Motlaghzadeh

13 M. Mahdavi

11 A. Vatandoust

5 A. Nouri

21 S. Sadeghi

Coach · –

Substitutes

69 · R. Jabireh

– · A. Karimi

20 · A. Rezaei

– · M. Bagheri

7 · A. Sadeghi

12 · M. Tayefeh

– · E. Khodadadian

27 · A. Latifi

66 · S. Kamalvand

77 · R. Zolfipour

99 · A. Amanipour

Our number · drawFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 14:12 · locked at kick-off

36% The market31%

Us36%

~~Market~~31%

We make the draw a 36% chance. The market has it at 31%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fajr Sepasi win	32%	45%	−12
Draw	36%	31%	+5
Aluminium Arak win	32%	24%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	28%	33%	−5
Both teams to score	38%	40%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	57%	58%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	12%	16%	−4
Fajr Sepasi or draw	68%	76%	−7
Fajr Sepasi clean sheet	40%	–	–
Aluminium Arak clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.0%

0123450 18.0 12.6 6.7 2.1 1 12.7 14.9 6.0 2 6.8 6.1 2.8 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fajr Sepasi down, Aluminium Arak across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,200 Persian Gulf Pro League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Persian Gulf Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 25.0% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fajr Sepasi at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Aluminium Arak away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Fajr Sepasi, 0.92 for Aluminium Arak. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ALU 1–1 FAJ · FAJ 0–0 ALU · ALU 1–0 FAJ

Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League

FAJR SEPASI

DWDDLL0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–6

ALUMINIUM ARAK

DWDWDD0–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tractor Sazi	8	+7	17
2	Persepolis FC	7	+11	16
3	Esteghlal FC	8	+8	16
4	Sepahan FC	7	+6	13
5	Aluminium Arak	7	+5	13
6	Gol Gohar	8	+3	13
7	Foolad FC	7	+3	12
8	Paykan	8	−1	9
9	Nassaji Mazandaran	8	−2	9
10	Chadormalu SC	8	−5	9
11	Malavan	7	−3	8
12	Kheybar Khorramabad	7	0	7
13	ZOB Ahan	7	−2	7
14	Fajr Sepasi	7	−5	7
15	Shams Azar Qazvin	8	−3	6
16	Esteghlal Khuzestan	8	−8	6
17	Mes Shahr-e Babak	8	−6	5
18	Sanat Naft	8	−8	4