Esteghlal FC v Shams Azar Qazvin prediction · Persian Gulf Pro League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Esteghlal FCDrawShams Azar Qazvin

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Esteghlal FC 56%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Esteghlal FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Esteghlal FC 56%, draw 31%, Shams Azar Qazvin 14%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Esteghlal FC v Shams Azar QazvinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Esteghlal FC win56%

Draw31%

Shams Azar Qazvin win14%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 14:15

RoundMatchday 11

VenueAzadi Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Esteghlal FC

Shams Azar Qazvin

7Days since last match12

Last match: 23 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

Last match: 18 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Esteghlal FC	10	+9	20
15	Shams Azar Qazvin	9	−3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · esteghlal fc winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

56% The market–

Us56%

We make Esteghlal FC a 56% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Esteghlal FC v Shams Azar Qazvin~~1.42 – 0.58

~~Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D4 L0 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 20 v 7~~3 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Esteghlal FC win	56%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Shams Azar Qazvin win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	32%	–	–
Both teams to score	35%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Esteghlal FC or draw	86%	–	–
Esteghlal FC clean sheet	56%	–	–
Shams Azar Qazvin clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.4%

0123450 15.5 6.3 2.4 1 17.4 12.6 3.2 2 13.4 7.7 2.3 3 6.4 3.7 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Esteghlal FC down, Shams Azar Qazvin across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,216 Persian Gulf Pro League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Persian Gulf Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.8% of games this season, across 84 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.29 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Esteghlal FC at home: 1.83 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Shams Azar Qazvin away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for Esteghlal FC, 0.58 for Shams Azar Qazvin. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.29

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~6 of 7

~~Last meetings~~EST 3–2 SHA · SHA 1–1 EST · SHA 1–2 EST · EST 0–1 SHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 28 Aug

ESTEGHLAL FC

DDWDWD1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–1

SHAMS AZAR QAZVIN

WDLLDD2–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persepolis FC	9	+14	20
2	Tractor Sazi	9	+10	20
3	Esteghlal FC	10	+9	20
4	Sepahan FC	9	+7	17
5	Foolad FC	9	+4	16
6	Aluminium Arak	10	+3	14
7	Kheybar Khorramabad	10	+2	14
8	Gol Gohar	10	+1	13
9	Fajr Sepasi	9	−2	13
10	Chadormalu SC	10	−4	13
11	Nassaji Mazandaran	9	−2	10
12	Paykan	9	−3	9
13	Malavan	8	−4	8
14	ZOB Ahan	10	−4	8
15	Shams Azar Qazvin	9	−3	7
16	Sanat Naft	10	−10	7
17	Esteghlal Khuzestan	9	−9	6
18	Mes Shahr-e Babak	9	−9	5