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Esteghlal FC v Gol Gohar

Esteghlal FC
1–0Full time
Gol Gohar

Persian Gulf Pro League · MON 19 OCT · Azadi Stadium

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 18:01
Esteghlal FC 1–0 Gol Gohar ESTEGHLAL FC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Esteghlal FC win45%
The market said51%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.460
The market’s Brier score0.365

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 17 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Esteghlal FC win at 45%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Esteghlal FC was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–34–21
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Esteghlal FC v Gol Gohar
  4. 33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Esteghlal FC win 40%)
  5. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Esteghlal FC win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Esteghlal FC 0–0 Gol Gohar
  7. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 16' Gol Gohar · On: A. Zendehrouh · Off: E. Hosseini
  8. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 33' A. Alizadeh · Gol Gohar
  9. 46′We said Esteghlal FC at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–49–18
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Esteghlal FC 0–0 Gol Gohar
  11. 47′Esteghlal FC score on 47′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 82–15–3
  12. 47′We published Esteghlal FC at 45%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–15–3
  13. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Esteghlal FC 1–0 Gol Gohar
  14. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Esteghlal FC win: 45% at kick-off, 82% now
  15. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Esteghlal FC win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 49%)
  16. 48′Gol Gohar find the net on 48′. 1–1. 1–1 · 33–50–17
  17. 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Esteghlal FC 1–1 Gol Gohar
  18. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Esteghlal FC win: 45% at kick-off, 33% now
  19. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Esteghlal FC win 82%)
  20. 55′We said Esteghlal FC at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–55–16
  21. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Esteghlal FC win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
  22. 64′We said Esteghlal FC at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–62–14
  23. 71′We said Esteghlal FC at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–70–11
  24. 76′Goals are coming at about the 1.9 we expected. 1–1 · 15–76–9
  25. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Esteghlal FC win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
  26. 77′We said Esteghlal FC at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–77–8
  27. 82′We said Esteghlal FC at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
  28. 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Esteghlal FC win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
  29. 89′We said Esteghlal FC at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
  30. FTFULL TIME Esteghlal FC 1–1 Gol Gohar
  31. FTEsteghlal FC 1–0 Gol Gohar · Esteghlal FC win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Esteghlal FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Esteghlal FC 45%, draw 34%, Gol Gohar 21%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Esteghlal FC v Gol GoharBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Esteghlal FC win45%
Draw34%
Gol Gohar win21%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 15:15

RoundMatchday 9

VenueAzadi Stadium

Line-ups

Esteghlal FC

Gol Gohar

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Esteghlal FC

Gol Gohar

7Days since last match5

Last match: 12 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite

Last match: 14 Oct · AFC Champions League Two

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Esteghlal FC8+816
7Gol Gohar8+313

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Esteghlal FC

Formation not confirmed

76 H. Farabbasi

6 S. Fallah

33 A. Aghasi

5 R. Ashurmatov

2 S. Hardani

87 E. Gholizadeh

4 R. Cheshmi

27 H. Goudarzi

7 J. Asani

11 S. Saharkhizan

10 J. Masharipov

Coach · –

Substitutes

8 · A. Razzaghinia

9 · M. Azadi

15 · A. Zamani

20 · A. Koushki

22 · S. Touranian

26 · M. G. Heydari

36 · A. Mohebali

60 · S. Hosseinifard

80 · M. Eslami

88 · M. Ahmadi

Gol Gohar

Formation not confirmed

97 M. Akhbari

5 M. Kor

7 E. Hosseini

6 M. Masoumi

2 M. Najjarian

11 M. Goudarzi

99 L. Ben Hassine

4 A. Alizadeh

19 P. Ghazipour

13 M. Alinejad

10 M. Aliyari

Coach · Seyed Rahmati

Substitutes

1 · F. Garousian

8 · A. Ashouri

9 · O. Alishah

14 · A. Jafari

16 · M. Bordbar

20 · M. Abbasi

26 · M. Zahedi

60 · A. Zendehrouh

69 · M. Kazemian

76 · S. Sahraei

88 · S. Nemati

Our number · esteghlal fc winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
45% The market51%
Us45%
Market51%

We make Esteghlal FC a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Esteghlal FC v Gol Gohar1.19 – 0.72
Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 23 AugW2 D4 L0 · W3 D0 L3
Table places · points 16 v 134 v 7
The market · Esteghlal FC win51% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 12 OCT 04:0219 OCT 14:33
Our probability · Esteghlal FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Esteghlal FC win45%51%−6
Draw34%30%+4
Gol Gohar win21%19%+2
Over 2.5 goals30%33%−3
Both teams to score37%38%−1
Over 1.5 goals58%58%0
Over 3.5 goals13%16%−3
Esteghlal FC or draw79%81%−2
Esteghlal FC clean sheet49%––
Gol Gohar clean sheet31%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.1%
0123450 17.1 8.8 3.9 1 15.7 14.3 4.5 2 10.4 7.4 2.7 3 4.2 3.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Esteghlal FC down, Gol Gohar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.67
Over 2.53 of 9
Both scored5 of 9
Last meetingsEST 0–1 GOL · GOL 1–1 EST · EST 0–0 GOL · EST 1–0 GOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 23 Aug

ESTEGHLAL FC

WDDDWD2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

GOL GOHAR

WLLLWW3–0 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Persepolis FC8+1117
2Sepahan FC9+717
3Tractor Sazi8+717
4Esteghlal FC8+816
5Foolad FC9+416
6Aluminium Arak9+313
7Gol Gohar8+313
8Chadormalu SC9−412
9Kheybar Khorramabad9+111
10Nassaji Mazandaran9−210
11Fajr Sepasi8−410
12Paykan8−19
13Malavan8−48
14Shams Azar Qazvin9−37
15ZOB Ahan9−47
16Sanat Naft9−77
17Esteghlal Khuzestan9−96
18Mes Shahr-e Babak8−65

The competition's standings before kick-off.