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Esteghlal FC v Gol Gohar
Esteghlal FC
Gol GoharPersian Gulf Pro League · MON 19 OCT · Azadi Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Esteghlal FC win at 45%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Esteghlal FC was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–34–21
- 1′KICK-OFF Esteghlal FC v Gol Gohar
- 33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Esteghlal FC win 40%)
- 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Esteghlal FC win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Esteghlal FC 0–0 Gol Gohar
- 45′SUBSTITUTION · 16' Gol Gohar · On: A. Zendehrouh · Off: E. Hosseini
- 45′🟨 YELLOW · 33' A. Alizadeh · Gol Gohar
- 46′We said Esteghlal FC at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–49–18
- 46′SECOND HALF Esteghlal FC 0–0 Gol Gohar
- 47′Esteghlal FC score on 47′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 82–15–3
- 47′We published Esteghlal FC at 45%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–15–3
- 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Esteghlal FC 1–0 Gol Gohar
- 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Esteghlal FC win: 45% at kick-off, 82% now
- 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Esteghlal FC win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 49%)
- 48′Gol Gohar find the net on 48′. 1–1. 1–1 · 33–50–17
- 48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Esteghlal FC 1–1 Gol Gohar
- 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Esteghlal FC win: 45% at kick-off, 33% now
- 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Esteghlal FC win 82%)
- 55′We said Esteghlal FC at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–55–16
- 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Esteghlal FC win: 45% at kick-off, 25% now
- 64′We said Esteghlal FC at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–62–14
- 71′We said Esteghlal FC at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–70–11
- 76′Goals are coming at about the 1.9 we expected. 1–1 · 15–76–9
- 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Esteghlal FC win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
- 77′We said Esteghlal FC at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–77–8
- 82′We said Esteghlal FC at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
- 88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' Esteghlal FC win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
- 89′We said Esteghlal FC at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–93–3
- FTFULL TIME Esteghlal FC 1–1 Gol Gohar
- FTEsteghlal FC 1–0 Gol Gohar · Esteghlal FC win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Esteghlal FC are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Esteghlal FC 45%, draw 34%, Gol Gohar 21%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 37%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Esteghlal FC win45%
Gol Gohar win21%Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 15:15
RoundMatchday 9
VenueAzadi Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Esteghlal FCMIN
Gol GoharEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Esteghlal FC
Gol Gohar
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Esteghlal FC
Gol Gohar
Last match: 12 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite
Last match: 14 Oct · AFC Champions League Two
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Esteghlal FC
Formation not confirmed
76 H. Farabbasi
6 S. Fallah
33 A. Aghasi
5 R. Ashurmatov
2 S. Hardani
87 E. Gholizadeh
4 R. Cheshmi
27 H. Goudarzi
7 J. Asani
11 S. Saharkhizan
10 J. Masharipov
Coach · –
Substitutes
8 · A. Razzaghinia
9 · M. Azadi
15 · A. Zamani
20 · A. Koushki
22 · S. Touranian
26 · M. G. Heydari
36 · A. Mohebali
60 · S. Hosseinifard
80 · M. Eslami
88 · M. Ahmadi
Gol Gohar
Formation not confirmed
97 M. Akhbari
5 M. Kor
7 E. Hosseini
6 M. Masoumi
2 M. Najjarian
11 M. Goudarzi
99 L. Ben Hassine
4 A. Alizadeh
19 P. Ghazipour
13 M. Alinejad
10 M. Aliyari
Coach · Seyed Rahmati
Substitutes
1 · F. Garousian
8 · A. Ashouri
9 · O. Alishah
14 · A. Jafari
16 · M. Bordbar
20 · M. Abbasi
26 · M. Zahedi
60 · A. Zendehrouh
69 · M. Kazemian
76 · S. Sahraei
88 · S. Nemati
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Esteghlal FC
Formation not confirmed
76 H. Farabbasi
6 S. Fallah
33 A. Aghasi
5 R. Ashurmatov
2 S. Hardani
87 E. Gholizadeh
4 R. Cheshmi
27 H. Goudarzi
7 J. Asani
11 S. Saharkhizan
10 J. Masharipov
Coach · –
Substitutes
8 · A. Razzaghinia
9 · M. Azadi
15 · A. Zamani
20 · A. Koushki
22 · S. Touranian
26 · M. G. Heydari
36 · A. Mohebali
60 · S. Hosseinifard
80 · M. Eslami
88 · M. Ahmadi
Gol Gohar
Formation not confirmed
97 M. Akhbari
5 M. Kor
7 E. Hosseini
6 M. Masoumi
2 M. Najjarian
11 M. Goudarzi
99 L. Ben Hassine
4 A. Alizadeh
19 P. Ghazipour
13 M. Alinejad
10 M. Aliyari
Coach · Seyed Rahmati
Substitutes
1 · F. Garousian
8 · A. Ashouri
9 · O. Alishah
14 · A. Jafari
16 · M. Bordbar
20 · M. Abbasi
26 · M. Zahedi
60 · A. Zendehrouh
69 · M. Kazemian
76 · S. Sahraei
88 · S. Nemati
We make Esteghlal FC a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Esteghlal FC win | 45% | 51% | −6 |
| Draw | 34% | 30% | +4 |
| Gol Gohar win | 21% | 19% | +2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 33% | −3 |
| Both teams to score | 37% | 38% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 13% | 16% | −3 |
| Esteghlal FC or draw | 79% | 81% | −2 |
| Esteghlal FC clean sheet | 49% | – | – |
| Gol Gohar clean sheet | 31% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
9 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 23 Aug
ESTEGHLAL FC
GOL GOHAR
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persepolis FC | 8 | +11 | 17 |
| 2 | Sepahan FC | 9 | +7 | 17 |
| 3 | Tractor Sazi | 8 | +7 | 17 |
| 4 | Esteghlal FC | 8 | +8 | 16 |
| 5 | Foolad FC | 9 | +4 | 16 |
| 6 | Aluminium Arak | 9 | +3 | 13 |
| 7 | Gol Gohar | 8 | +3 | 13 |
| 8 | Chadormalu SC | 9 | −4 | 12 |
| 9 | Kheybar Khorramabad | 9 | +1 | 11 |
| 10 | Nassaji Mazandaran | 9 | −2 | 10 |
| 11 | Fajr Sepasi | 8 | −4 | 10 |
| 12 | Paykan | 8 | −1 | 9 |
| 13 | Malavan | 8 | −4 | 8 |
| 14 | Shams Azar Qazvin | 9 | −3 | 7 |
| 15 | ZOB Ahan | 9 | −4 | 7 |
| 16 | Sanat Naft | 9 | −7 | 7 |
| 17 | Esteghlal Khuzestan | 9 | −9 | 6 |
| 18 | Mes Shahr-e Babak | 8 | −6 | 5 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Persepolis FC
Sepahan FC
Tractor Sazi
Foolad FC
Aluminium Arak
Chadormalu SC
Kheybar Khorramabad
Nassaji Mazandaran
Fajr Sepasi
Paykan
Malavan
Shams Azar Qazvin
ZOB Ahan
Sanat Naft
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Mes Shahr-e Babak