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Model 1.2

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Chadormalu SC v Esteghlal FC

Chadormalu SC
1–1Full time
Esteghlal FC

Persian Gulf Pro League · FRI 23 OCT · Nassiri Stadium

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 17:02
Chadormalu SC 1–1 Esteghlal FC ESTEGHLAL FC WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Esteghlal FC win39%
The market said51%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.634
The market’s Brier score0.809

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 31 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Esteghlal FC win at 39%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Chadormalu SC v Esteghlal FC
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Esteghlal FC 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 26–36–39
  4. 24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Esteghlal FC win 38%)
  5. 29′Esteghlal FC find the net on 29′. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–18–76
  6. 29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Chadormalu SC 0–1 Esteghlal FC
  7. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Esteghlal FC win: 39% at kick-off, 76% now
  8. 29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Esteghlal FC win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 42%)
  9. 30′We said Esteghlal FC at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 0–1 · 6–18–76
  10. 31′The goal count is tracking the 1.9 we expected. 0–1 · 6–18–77
  11. 32′SUBSTITUTION · 31' Chadormalu SC · On: A. Anafjeh · Off: S. M. Hosseini Corrected
  12. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Esteghlal FC win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Chadormalu SC 0–1 Esteghlal FC
  14. 46′SECOND HALF Chadormalu SC 0–1 Esteghlal FC
  15. 49′We said Esteghlal FC at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 4–17–80
  16. 54′A goal for Chadormalu SC on 54′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 19–55–26
  17. 54′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Chadormalu SC · On: A. Kalbasi · Off: M. Khosravi
  18. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Chadormalu SC 1–1 Esteghlal FC
  19. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Esteghlal FC win: 39% at kick-off, 26% now
  20. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Esteghlal FC win 81%)
  21. 55′We said Esteghlal FC at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 19–55–26
  22. 59′We said Esteghlal FC at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 18–58–24
  23. 66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Esteghlal FC
  24. 68′We said Esteghlal FC at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 14–67–19
  25. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Esteghlal FC win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
  26. 73′Chadormalu SC score on 73′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 84–14–2
  27. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Esteghlal FC
  28. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Chadormalu SC 2–1 Esteghlal FC
  29. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Esteghlal FC win: 39% at kick-off, 2% now
  30. 73′THE CALL SWINGS · 73' Chadormalu SC win is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Draw 71%)
  31. 74′We said Esteghlal FC at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 2–1 · 85–14–1
  32. 74′3 goals already, more than the 1.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 85–14–1
  33. 74′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Esteghlal FC · On: A. Koushki · Off: S. Saharkhizan
  34. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Esteghlal FC · On: A. Razzaghinia · Off: R. Cheshmi
  35. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Esteghlal FC · On: M. Eslami · Off: E. Gholizadeh
  36. 79′GOAL DISALLOWED · 79' Chadormalu SC
  37. 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Chadormalu SC win 88%)
  38. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Chadormalu SC
  39. 83′🟨 YELLOW · 77' D. Torres · Chadormalu SC
  40. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Chadormalu SC · On: R. Alborno · Off: S. M. Hosseini
  41. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Esteghlal FC · On: M. Ahmadi · Off: J. Masharipov
  42. 98′SUBSTITUTION · 90+7' Chadormalu SC · On: M. Tabatabaei · Off: R. Mirzaei
  43. 98′SUBSTITUTION · 90+7' Chadormalu SC · On: P. Lashak · Off: Renny
  44. FTFULL TIME Chadormalu SC 1–1 Esteghlal FC
  45. FTChadormalu SC 1–1 Esteghlal FC · Esteghlal FC win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Esteghlal FC just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Chadormalu SC 26%, draw 35%, Esteghlal FC 39%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Chadormalu SC v Esteghlal FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Chadormalu SC win26%
Draw35%
Esteghlal FC win39%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 14:15

RoundMatchday 10

VenueNassiri Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chadormalu SC

Esteghlal FC

5Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

Last match: 19 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
3Esteghlal FC9+919
9Chadormalu SC9−412

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · esteghlal fc winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off
39% The market51%
Us39%
Market51%

We make Esteghlal FC a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Chadormalu SC v Esteghlal FC0.81 – 1.07
Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 28 AugW3 D2 L1 · W2 D4 L0
Table places · points 12 v 199 v 3
The market · Esteghlal FC win51% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45%50%55% 16 OCT 00:0023 OCT 13:41
Our probability · Esteghlal FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Chadormalu SC win26%21%+5
Draw35%29%+6
Esteghlal FC win39%51%−12
Over 2.5 goals29%39%−10
Both teams to score38%43%−5
Over 1.5 goals58%65%−7
Over 3.5 goals12%20%−8
Chadormalu SC or draw61%49%+12
Chadormalu SC clean sheet35%––
Esteghlal FC clean sheet45%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.6%
0123450 17.6 14.3 8.7 3.2 1 10.5 14.8 6.8 2.5 2 5.1 5.3 2.8 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Chadormalu SC down, Esteghlal FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022/23
Goals a meeting0.67
Over 2.50 of 3
Both scored1 of 3
Last meetingsCHA 1–1 EST · EST 0–0 CHA · CHA 0–0 EST

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 28 Aug

CHADORMALU SC

LDWWDW0–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 2–1

ESTEGHLAL FC

DDDWDW0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Persepolis FC9+1420
2Tractor Sazi9+1020
3Esteghlal FC9+919
4Sepahan FC9+717
5Foolad FC9+416
6Aluminium Arak9+313
7Gol Gohar9+213
8Fajr Sepasi9−213
9Chadormalu SC9−412
10Kheybar Khorramabad9+111
11Nassaji Mazandaran9−210
12Paykan9−39
13Malavan8−48
14Shams Azar Qazvin9−37
15ZOB Ahan9−47
16Sanat Naft10−107
17Esteghlal Khuzestan9−96
18Mes Shahr-e Babak9−95

The competition's standings before kick-off.