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Aluminium Arak v ZOB Ahan

Aluminium Arak

0–0Full time

ZOB Ahan

Persian Gulf Pro League · FRI 23 OCT · Imam Khomeini

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:02

Aluminium Arak 0–0 ZOB Ahan ALUMINIUM ARAK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Aluminium Arak win~~38%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.601

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.725

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Aluminium Arak win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Aluminium Arak was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–37–25
1′KICK-OFF Aluminium Arak v ZOB Ahan
14′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Aluminium Arak
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Aluminium Arak win 37%)
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Aluminium Arak
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Aluminium Arak win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
45′HALF-TIME Aluminium Arak 0–0 ZOB Ahan
46′🟨 YELLOW · 20' S. Jafarikia · Aluminium Arak
46′SECOND HALF Aluminium Arak 0–0 ZOB Ahan
51′We said Aluminium Arak at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–55–19
56′We said Aluminium Arak at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–58–18
61′SUBSTITUTION · 53' ZOB Ahan · On: S. Hosseini · Off: A. Ghaderi Corrected
62′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Aluminium Arak · On: B. Goudarzi · Off: R. Zolfipour
66′We said Aluminium Arak at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–14
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Aluminium Arak win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
74′We said Aluminium Arak at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–75–11
79′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Aluminium Arak · On: S. Bozorg · Off: R. Jabireh
80′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Aluminium Arak · On: A. Vatandoust · Off: A. Karimi
81′We said Aluminium Arak at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–85–7
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Aluminium Arak win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
88′We said Aluminium Arak at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
FTFULL TIME Aluminium Arak 0–0 ZOB Ahan
FTAluminium Arak 0–0 ZOB Ahan · Aluminium Arak win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Aluminium Arak just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Aluminium Arak 38%, draw 37%, ZOB Ahan 25%. Over 2.5 goals 25%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Aluminium Arak v ZOB AhanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Aluminium Arak win38%

Draw37%

ZOB Ahan win25%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueImam Khomeini

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Aluminium Arak

ZOB Ahan

6Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

Last match: 18 Oct · Persian Gulf Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Aluminium Arak	9	+3	13
15	ZOB Ahan	9	−4	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · aluminium arak winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

38% The market46%

Us38%

~~Market~~46%

We make Aluminium Arak a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Aluminium Arak v ZOB Ahan~~0.98 – 0.75

~~Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 7~~6 v 15

~~The market · Aluminium Arak win~~46% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Aluminium Arak win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Aluminium Arak win	38%	46%	−8
Draw	37%	32%	+5
ZOB Ahan win	25%	22%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	25%	30%	−5
Both teams to score	35%	37%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	53%	56%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	10%	14%	−4
Aluminium Arak or draw	75%	78%	−3
Aluminium Arak clean sheet	47%	–	–
ZOB Ahan clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 19.9%

0123450 19.9 11.4 5.0 1 15.3 14.6 4.8 2 8.5 6.3 2.4 3 2.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Aluminium Arak down, ZOB Ahan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,213 Persian Gulf Pro League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Persian Gulf Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 30.9% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Aluminium Arak at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). ZOB Ahan away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Aluminium Arak, 0.75 for ZOB Ahan. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~1 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALU 1–0 ZOB · ZOB 0–1 ALU · ALU 2–0 ZOB · ZOB 0–4 ALU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Persian Gulf Pro League this season · since 28 Aug

ALUMINIUM ARAK

DWDDLL2–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

ZOB AHAN

DWLDLL0–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Persepolis FC	9	+14	20
2	Tractor Sazi	9	+10	20
3	Esteghlal FC	9	+9	19
4	Sepahan FC	9	+7	17
5	Foolad FC	9	+4	16
6	Aluminium Arak	9	+3	13
7	Gol Gohar	9	+2	13
8	Fajr Sepasi	9	−2	13
9	Chadormalu SC	9	−4	12
10	Kheybar Khorramabad	9	+1	11
11	Nassaji Mazandaran	9	−2	10
12	Paykan	9	−3	9
13	Malavan	8	−4	8
14	Shams Azar Qazvin	9	−3	7
15	ZOB Ahan	9	−4	7
16	Sanat Naft	10	−10	7
17	Esteghlal Khuzestan	9	−9	6
18	Mes Shahr-e Babak	9	−9	5