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Shenavarsazi Qeshm v Mes Kerman

Shenavarsazi Qeshm
1–0Full time
Mes Kerman

Azadegan League · TUE 20 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 17:31
Shenavarsazi Qeshm 1–0 Mes Kerman DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTUNDER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said a draw43%
The market said26%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.747
The market’s Brier score0.237

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 9 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 43%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Shenavarsazi Qeshm v Mes Kerman
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: the draw 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 30–43–27
  4. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Draw: 43% at kick-off, 53% now
  5. 39′We said the draw at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 55%. 0–0 · 23–55–22
  6. 48′We said the draw at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 60%. 0–0 · 21–60–19
  7. 70′We said the draw at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 0–0 · 12–76–12
  8. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Draw: 43% at kick-off, 76% now
  9. 74′We said the draw at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–0 · 10–80–10
  10. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Draw: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
  11. 79′79′: M. Ranjbari on the scoresheet for Shenavarsazi Qeshm, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 93–7–0
  12. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Shenavarsazi Qeshm 1–0 Mes Kerman · M. Ranjbari
  13. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Draw: 43% at kick-off, 7% now
  14. 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Shenavarsazi Qeshm win is now our likeliest result at 93% (was Draw 85%)
  15. 80′We said the draw at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 1–0 · 94–6–0
  16. 81′The goal count is tracking the 1.3 we expected. 1–0 · 94–6–0
  17. 84′We said the draw at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 96–4–0
  18. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Draw: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
  19. FTFULL TIME Shenavarsazi Qeshm 1–0 Mes Kerman
  20. FTShenavarsazi Qeshm 1–0 Mes Kerman · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Under 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Shenavarsazi Qeshm 30%, draw 43%, Mes Kerman 27%. Over 2.5 goals 16%, both teams to score 25%.

The AI’s read on Shenavarsazi Qeshm v Mes KermanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Shenavarsazi Qeshm win30%
Draw43%
Mes Kerman win27%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shenavarsazi Qeshm

Mes Kerman

8Days since last match8

Last match: 12 Oct · Azadegan League

Last match: 12 Oct · Azadegan League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Shenavarsazi Qeshm5+29
15Mes Kerman5−23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off
43% The market26%
Us43%
Market26%

We make the draw a 43% chance. The market has it at 26%. We are 17 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Shenavarsazi Qeshm v Mes Kerman0.70 – 0.65
Form · Azadegan League this season · since 15 SeptW2 D3 L0 · W0 D3 L2
Table places · points 9 v 34 v 15
The market · Draw26% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
20%25%30%35%40%45% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 14:38
Our probability · Draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 26% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Shenavarsazi Qeshm win30%61%−31
Draw43%26%+17
Mes Kerman win27%13%+14
Over 2.5 goals16%39%−23
Both teams to score25%36%−11
Over 1.5 goals41%62%−21
Over 3.5 goals5%22%−17
Shenavarsazi Qeshm or draw73%87%−14
Shenavarsazi Qeshm clean sheet53%––
Mes Kerman clean sheet50%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 28.2%
0123450 28.2 15.1 5.5 1 16.1 13.0 3.8 2 6.3 4.0 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Shenavarsazi Qeshm down, Mes Kerman across0–5 goals a side shown (100.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsMES 1–2 SHE · SHE 1–0 MES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Azadegan League this season · since 15 Sept

SHENAVARSAZI QESHM

DDDWW0–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

MES KERMAN

DLDDL1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Pars Jonoubi JAM5+311
2Mes Rafsanjan5+311
3Saipa6+110
4Shenavarsazi Qeshm5+29
5Ario Eslamshahr509
6Naft Masjed Soleyman6+28
7Fard Alborz6+18
8Mes Soongoun6−18
9Be'sat Kermanshah5+27
10Novin Ahvaz607
11Naft Gachsaran606
12Naft Bandar Abbas506
13Shahin Bandar Ameri6−26
14Niroye Zamini5−24
15Mes Kerman5−23
16Havadar6−72

The competition's standings before kick-off.