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Shahin Bandar Ameri v Mes Soongoun

Shahin Bandar Ameri

2–3Full time

Mes Soongoun

Azadegan League · MON 19 OCT

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 19:01

Shahin Bandar Ameri 2–3 Mes Soongoun SHAHIN BANDAR AMERI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Shahin Bandar Ameri win~~44%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.940

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.682

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Shahin Bandar Ameri win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Shahin Bandar Ameri 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–35–21
1′KICK-OFF Shahin Bandar Ameri v Mes Soongoun
19′A goal for Mes Soongoun on 19′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 15–25–60
19′We said Shahin Bandar Ameri at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–25–60
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Shahin Bandar Ameri 0–1 Mes Soongoun
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Shahin Bandar Ameri win: 44% at kick-off, 15% now
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Mes Soongoun win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Shahin Bandar Ameri win 40%)
23′We said Shahin Bandar Ameri at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Shahin Bandar Ameri win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 1.8 we expected. 0–1 · 13–25–62
42′We said Shahin Bandar Ameri at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–66
45′Mes Soongoun ahead on 45′ through S. Bahrani. 1–2. 1–2 · 9–24–67
45′We said Shahin Bandar Ameri at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–67
45′3 goals already, more than the 1.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 9–24–67
45′HALF-TIME Shahin Bandar Ameri 1–2 Mes Soongoun
46′SECOND HALF Shahin Bandar Ameri 1–2 Mes Soongoun
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Shahin Bandar Ameri win: 44% at kick-off, 8% now
47′Mes Soongoun find the net on 45′. 1–2. 1–2 · 8–24–68
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Shahin Bandar Ameri 1–2 Mes Soongoun
48′3 goals already, more than the 1.8 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 8–24–69
61′We said Shahin Bandar Ameri at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–75
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Shahin Bandar Ameri win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
66′A goal for Shahin Bandar Ameri on 66′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 22–65–13
66′We said Shahin Bandar Ameri at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 2–2 · 22–65–13
66′That is 4, and we only asked for 1.8 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 22–65–13
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Shahin Bandar Ameri 2–2 Mes Soongoun
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Shahin Bandar Ameri win: 44% at kick-off, 22% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Draw is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Mes Soongoun win 78%)
70′We said Shahin Bandar Ameri at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–70–11
72′Mes Soongoun score on 71′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 2–16–82
72′5 goals already, more than the 1.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 2–16–82
72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Shahin Bandar Ameri 2–3 Mes Soongoun
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Shahin Bandar Ameri win: 44% at kick-off, 2% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Mes Soongoun win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 71%)
FTFULL TIME Shahin Bandar Ameri 2–3 Mes Soongoun
FTShahin Bandar Ameri 2–3 Mes Soongoun · Shahin Bandar Ameri win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Shahin Bandar Ameri are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shahin Bandar Ameri 44%, draw 35%, Mes Soongoun 21%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 35%.

The AI’s read on Shahin Bandar Ameri v Mes SoongounBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · postponed, not graded

Shahin Bandar Ameri win44%

Draw35%

Mes Soongoun win21%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shahin Bandar Ameri

Mes Soongoun

8Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Azadegan League

Last match: 12 Oct · Azadegan League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Shahin Bandar Ameri	5	−1	6
11	Mes Soongoun	5	−2	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shahin bandar ameri winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · postponed, not graded

44% The market35%

Us44%

~~Market~~35%

We make Shahin Bandar Ameri a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Shahin Bandar Ameri v Mes Soongoun~~1.13 – 0.69

~~Form · Azadegan League this season · since 15 Sept~~W1 D3 L1 · W1 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 6 v 5~~10 v 11

~~The market · Shahin Bandar Ameri win~~35% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Shahin Bandar Ameri win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shahin Bandar Ameri win	44%	35%	+9
Draw	35%	32%	+3
Mes Soongoun win	21%	33%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	28%	29%	−1
Both teams to score	35%	37%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	56%	56%	0
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
Shahin Bandar Ameri or draw	79%	67%	+12
Shahin Bandar Ameri clean sheet	51%	–	–
Mes Soongoun clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.9%

0123450 18.9 9.4 4.0 1 16.1 13.8 4.2 2 10.0 6.7 2.4 3 4.0 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shahin Bandar Ameri down, Mes Soongoun across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,534 Azadegan League matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Azadegan League matches have gone over 2.5 in 22.5% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Shahin Bandar Ameri at home: 0.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Mes Soongoun away: 0.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Shahin Bandar Ameri, 0.69 for Mes Soongoun. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Azadegan League this season · since 15 Sept

SHAHIN BANDAR AMERI

DDDWL1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 0–3

MES SOONGOUN

LDDLW0–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pars Jonoubi JAM	5	+3	11
2	Mes Rafsanjan	5	+3	11
3	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	5	+2	9
4	Saipa	5	+1	9
5	Ario Eslamshahr	5	0	9
6	Fard Alborz	5	+3	8
7	Naft Masjed Soleyman	5	+2	7
8	Be'sat Kermanshah	5	+2	7
9	Naft Bandar Abbas	5	0	6
10	Shahin Bandar Ameri	5	−1	6
11	Mes Soongoun	5	−2	5
12	Novin Ahvaz	5	−1	4
13	Niroye Zamini	5	−2	4
14	Mes Kerman	5	−2	3
15	Naft Gachsaran	5	−2	3
16	Havadar	5	−6	2