Saipa v Shenavarsazi Qeshm prediction · Azadegan League

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 17:02

Saipa 0–1 Shenavarsazi Qeshm SAIPA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Saipa win~~54%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.147

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.041

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Saipa win at 54%.
1′KICK-OFF Saipa v Shenavarsazi Qeshm
2′Little has changed for our model: Saipa 54% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–30–15
33′Little has changed for our model: Saipa 54% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–41–14
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Saipa win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Saipa win: 54% at kick-off, 46% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Saipa win: 54% at kick-off, 46% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Saipa win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Saipa win: 54% at kick-off, 46% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Saipa win: 54% at kick-off, 44% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Saipa win: 54% at kick-off, 43% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Saipa win: 54% at kick-off, 43% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Saipa win: 54% at kick-off, 46% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Saipa win: 54% at kick-off, 46% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Saipa win: 54% at kick-off, 43% now
45′HALF-TIME Saipa 0–0 Shenavarsazi Qeshm
46′SECOND HALF Saipa 0–0 Shenavarsazi Qeshm
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Saipa 0–1 Shenavarsazi Qeshm
FTFULL TIME Saipa 0–1 Shenavarsazi Qeshm
FTSaipa 0–1 Shenavarsazi Qeshm · Saipa win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 14:31 · locked at kick-off

Saipa win54%

Draw33%

Shenavarsazi Qeshm win13%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 14:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Saipa

Shenavarsazi Qeshm

8Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saipa	4	+2	9
7	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	4	+1	6

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · saipa winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 14:31 · locked at kick-off

54% The market54%

Us54%

~~Market~~54%

We make Saipa a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–0.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · saipa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Saipa win	54%	54%	0
Draw	33%	28%	+5
Shenavarsazi Qeshm win	13%	18%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	28%	34%	−7
Both teams to score	30%	38%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	56%	62%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
Saipa or draw	87%	82%	+5
Saipa clean sheet	60%	–	–
Shenavarsazi Qeshm clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 19.1%

0123450 18.6 6.8 2.3 1 19.1 12.3 2.8 2 13.4 6.7 3 6.0 3.0 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Saipa down, Shenavarsazi Qeshm across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,528 Azadegan League matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Azadegan League matches have gone over 2.5 in 23.5% of games this season, across 34 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Saipa at home: 1.17 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Shenavarsazi Qeshm away: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Saipa, 0.52 for Shenavarsazi Qeshm. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SHE 1–2 SAI · SAI 3–0 SHE

Form · last six in Azadegan League

SAIPA

WWWWWL2–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–2

SHENAVARSAZI QESHM

LDDDDW1–3 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saipa	4	+2	9
2	Fard Alborz	5	+3	8
3	Pars Jonoubi JAM	4	+2	8
4	Mes Rafsanjan	4	+2	8
5	Be'sat Kermanshah	4	+3	7
6	Naft Masjed Soleyman	5	+2	7
7	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	4	+1	6
8	Shahin Bandar Ameri	5	−1	6
9	Ario Eslamshahr	4	−1	6
10	Naft Bandar Abbas	4	0	5
11	Novin Ahvaz	5	−1	4
12	Niroye Zamini	4	−1	4
13	Mes Kerman	4	−1	3
14	Naft Gachsaran	4	−1	3
15	Mes Soongoun	4	−3	2
16	Havadar	4	−6	1