Saipa v Naft Gachsaran prediction · Azadegan League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

SaipaDrawNaft Gachsaran

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Saipa 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Saipa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Saipa 53%, draw 32%, Naft Gachsaran 15%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 33%.

The AI’s read on Saipa v Naft GachsaranBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Saipa win53%

Draw32%

Naft Gachsaran win15%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Saipa

Naft Gachsaran

8Days since last match8

Last match: 19 Oct · Azadegan League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Saipa	6	+1	10
11	Naft Gachsaran	6	0	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · saipa winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

53% The market51%

Us53%

~~Market~~51%

We make Saipa a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Saipa v Naft Gachsaran~~1.34 – 0.58

~~Form · Azadegan League this season · since 16 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 6~~5 v 11

~~The market · Saipa win~~51% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Saipa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Saipa win	53%	51%	+2
Draw	32%	30%	+2
Naft Gachsaran win	15%	19%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	30%	32%	−2
Both teams to score	33%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	58%	59%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	13%	–	–
Saipa or draw	85%	81%	+4
Saipa clean sheet	56%	–	–
Naft Gachsaran clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 17.8%

0123450 17.0 7.1 2.6 1 17.8 12.6 3.3 2 12.8 7.2 2.1 3 5.9 3.3 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Saipa down, Naft Gachsaran across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,542 Azadegan League matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Azadegan League matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.2% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Saipa at home: 1.17 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Naft Gachsaran away: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Saipa, 0.58 for Naft Gachsaran. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~NAF 2–1 SAI · SAI 0–0 NAF · NAF 1–1 SAI · SAI 1–0 NAF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Azadegan League this season · since 16 Sept

SAIPA

WWWLLD2–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1

NAFT GACHSARAN

DLDDLW0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 4–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mes Rafsanjan	6	+6	14
2	Pars Jonoubi JAM	6	+4	14
3	Ario Eslamshahr	6	+4	12
4	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	6	+3	12
5	Saipa	6	+1	10
6	Naft Masjed Soleyman	6	+2	8
7	Fard Alborz	6	+1	8
8	Mes Soongoun	6	−1	8
9	Be'sat Kermanshah	6	+1	7
10	Novin Ahvaz	6	0	7
11	Naft Gachsaran	6	0	6
12	Shahin Bandar Ameri	6	−2	6
13	Naft Bandar Abbas	6	−4	6
14	Niroye Zamini	6	−5	4
15	Mes Kerman	6	−3	3
16	Havadar	6	−7	2