Pars Jonoubi JAM v Naft Gachsaran prediction · Azadegan League

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 18:24

Pars Jonoubi JAM 1–0 Naft Gachsaran PARS JONOUBI JAM WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Pars Jonoubi JAM win~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.243

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Pars Jonoubi JAM win at 61%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Pars Jonoubi JAM 61% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–24–13
1′KICK-OFF Pars Jonoubi JAM v Naft Gachsaran
22′Little has changed for our model: Pars Jonoubi JAM 61% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–30–13
45′HALF-TIME Pars Jonoubi JAM 0–0 Naft Gachsaran
46′SECOND HALF Pars Jonoubi JAM 0–0 Naft Gachsaran
46′⚽ GOAL · 65' Pars Jonoubi JAM 1–0 Naft Gachsaran · Y. Delfi
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Pars Jonoubi JAM 1–0 Naft Gachsaran
FTFULL TIME Pars Jonoubi JAM 1–0 Naft Gachsaran
FTPars Jonoubi JAM 1–0 Naft Gachsaran · Pars Jonoubi JAM win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

Pars Jonoubi JAM win61%

Draw27%

Naft Gachsaran win12%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 15:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Pars Jonoubi JAM

Naft Gachsaran

7Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Pars Jonoubi JAM	4	+2	8
14	Naft Gachsaran	4	−1	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pars jonoubi jam winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

61% The market–

Us61%

We make Pars Jonoubi JAM a 61% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pars Jonoubi JAM win	61%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Naft Gachsaran win	12%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Pars Jonoubi JAM or draw	88%	–	–
Pars Jonoubi JAM clean sheet	56%	–	–
Naft Gachsaran clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.6%

0123450 12.9 4.9 2.0 1 15.6 11.7 3.1 2 13.9 8.0 2.4 3 7.8 4.4 4 3.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pars Jonoubi JAM down, Naft Gachsaran across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,528 Azadegan League matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Azadegan League matches have gone over 2.5 in 23.5% of games this season, across 34 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pars Jonoubi JAM at home: 1.50 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Naft Gachsaran away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Pars Jonoubi JAM, 0.59 for Naft Gachsaran. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~PAR 1–1 NAF · NAF 0–1 PAR · NAF 1–1 PAR · PAR 1–0 NAF

Form · last six in Azadegan League

PARS JONOUBI JAM

WWDDWW4–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 1–0

NAFT GACHSARAN

DLDLDD2–2 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saipa	4	+2	9
2	Fard Alborz	5	+3	8
3	Pars Jonoubi JAM	4	+2	8
4	Mes Rafsanjan	4	+2	8
5	Be'sat Kermanshah	4	+3	7
6	Naft Masjed Soleyman	5	+2	7
7	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	4	+1	6
8	Shahin Bandar Ameri	5	−1	6
9	Ario Eslamshahr	4	−1	6
10	Naft Bandar Abbas	4	0	5
11	Novin Ahvaz	5	−1	4
12	Niroye Zamini	4	−1	4
13	Mes Kerman	4	−1	3
14	Naft Gachsaran	4	−1	3
15	Mes Soongoun	4	−3	2
16	Havadar	4	−6	1