Pars Jonoubi JAM v Ario Eslamshahr prediction · Azadegan League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Pars Jonoubi JAMDrawArio Eslamshahr

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Pars Jonoubi JAM 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Pars Jonoubi JAM are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pars Jonoubi JAM 44%, draw 36%, Ario Eslamshahr 20%. Over 2.5 goals 25%, both teams to score 32%.

The AI’s read on Pars Jonoubi JAM v Ario EslamshahrBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Pars Jonoubi JAM win44%

Draw36%

Ario Eslamshahr win20%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 14:15

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pars Jonoubi JAM

Ario Eslamshahr

7Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · Azadegan League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Pars Jonoubi JAM	6	+4	14
3	Ario Eslamshahr	6	+4	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · pars jonoubi jam winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Pars Jonoubi JAM a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.6, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 20%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pars Jonoubi JAM v Ario Eslamshahr~~1.08 – 0.64

~~Form · Azadegan League this season · since 15 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 14 v 12~~2 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pars Jonoubi JAM win	44%	–	–
Draw	36%	–	–
Ario Eslamshahr win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	25%	–	–
Both teams to score	32%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	53%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	10%	–	–
Pars Jonoubi JAM or draw	80%	–	–
Pars Jonoubi JAM clean sheet	53%	–	–
Ario Eslamshahr clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 20.2%

0123450 20.2 9.7 3.7 1 17.4 13.7 3.9 2 10.3 6.4 2.1 3 3.9 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pars Jonoubi JAM down, Ario Eslamshahr across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,542 Azadegan League matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Azadegan League matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.2% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.83 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pars Jonoubi JAM at home: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Ario Eslamshahr away: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Pars Jonoubi JAM, 0.64 for Ario Eslamshahr. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.83

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ARI 1–0 PAR · PAR 1–0 ARI · PAR 2–2 ARI · ARI 1–1 PAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Azadegan League this season · since 15 Sept

PARS JONOUBI JAM

DDWWWW0–0 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–1

ARIO ESLAMSHAHR

LWWLWW0–3 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mes Rafsanjan	6	+6	14
2	Pars Jonoubi JAM	6	+4	14
3	Ario Eslamshahr	6	+4	12
4	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	6	+3	12
5	Saipa	6	+1	10
6	Naft Masjed Soleyman	6	+2	8
7	Fard Alborz	6	+1	8
8	Mes Soongoun	6	−1	8
9	Be'sat Kermanshah	6	+1	7
10	Novin Ahvaz	6	0	7
11	Naft Gachsaran	6	0	6
12	Shahin Bandar Ameri	6	−2	6
13	Naft Bandar Abbas	6	−4	6
14	Niroye Zamini	6	−5	4
15	Mes Kerman	6	−3	3
16	Havadar	6	−7	2