Novin Ahvaz v Naft Masjed Soleyman prediction · Azadegan League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Novin Ahvaz 1–1 Naft Masjed Soleyman NOVIN AHVAZ WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Novin Ahvaz win~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.700

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 6 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Novin Ahvaz win at 34%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Novin Ahvaz 34% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 36–28–36
1′KICK-OFF Novin Ahvaz v Naft Masjed Soleyman
8′Little has changed for our model: Novin Ahvaz 34% before kick-off, 35% now. 0–0 · 35–29–36
45′HALF-TIME Novin Ahvaz 0–0 Naft Masjed Soleyman
46′SECOND HALF Novin Ahvaz 0–0 Naft Masjed Soleyman
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Novin Ahvaz 0–1 Naft Masjed Soleyman
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Novin Ahvaz 1–1 Naft Masjed Soleyman
FTFULL TIME Novin Ahvaz 1–1 Naft Masjed Soleyman
FTNovin Ahvaz 1–1 Naft Masjed Soleyman · Novin Ahvaz win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Novin Ahvaz win34%

Draw32%

Naft Masjed Soleyman win34%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Novin Ahvaz

Naft Masjed Soleyman

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Naft Masjed Soleyman	4	+2	6
12	Novin Ahvaz	4	−1	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · novin ahvaz winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

34% The market–

Us34%

We make Novin Ahvaz a 34% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Novin Ahvaz win	34%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Naft Masjed Soleyman win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Novin Ahvaz or draw	66%	–	–
Novin Ahvaz clean sheet	33%	–	–
Naft Masjed Soleyman clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 12.6 9.1 6.4 2.7 1 9.4 14.2 7.0 2.9 2 6.6 7.1 4.1 3 2.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Novin Ahvaz down, Naft Masjed Soleyman across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,526 Azadegan League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Azadegan League matches have gone over 2.5 in 21.9% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Novin Ahvaz at home: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 2). Naft Masjed Soleyman away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Novin Ahvaz, 1.20 for Naft Masjed Soleyman. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Azadegan League

NOVIN AHVAZ

LDDD0–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–1

NAFT MASJED SOLEYMAN

LWWLLW0–2 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saipa	4	+2	9
2	Pars Jonoubi JAM	4	+2	8
3	Mes Rafsanjan	4	+2	8
4	Be'sat Kermanshah	4	+3	7
5	Naft Masjed Soleyman	4	+2	6
6	Shahin Bandar Ameri	4	+2	6
7	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	4	+1	6
8	Ario Eslamshahr	4	−1	6
9	Naft Bandar Abbas	4	0	5
10	Fard Alborz	4	0	5
11	Niroye Zamini	4	−1	4
12	Novin Ahvaz	4	−1	3
13	Mes Kerman	4	−1	3
14	Naft Gachsaran	4	−1	3
15	Mes Soongoun	4	−3	2
16	Havadar	4	−6	1