Novin Ahvaz v Be'sat Kermanshah prediction · Azadegan League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Novin AhvazDrawBe'sat Kermanshah

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Novin Ahvaz 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Novin Ahvaz are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Novin Ahvaz 41%, draw 35%, Be'sat Kermanshah 24%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Novin Ahvaz v Be'sat KermanshahBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Novin Ahvaz win41%

Draw35%

Be'sat Kermanshah win24%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Novin Ahvaz

Be'sat Kermanshah

8Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · Azadegan League

Last match: 20 Oct · Azadegan League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Be'sat Kermanshah	6	+1	7
10	Novin Ahvaz	6	0	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · novin ahvaz winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Novin Ahvaz a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 17%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Novin Ahvaz v Be'sat Kermanshah~~1.14 – 0.81

~~Form · Azadegan League this season · since 15 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 7 v 7~~10 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Novin Ahvaz win	41%	–	–
Draw	35%	–	–
Be'sat Kermanshah win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	31%	–	–
Both teams to score	38%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	59%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
Novin Ahvaz or draw	76%	–	–
Novin Ahvaz clean sheet	45%	–	–
Be'sat Kermanshah clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.0%

0123450 17.0 9.8 4.7 1 14.3 14.3 5.1 2 9.1 7.0 2.9 3 3.6 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Novin Ahvaz down, Be'sat Kermanshah across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,542 Azadegan League matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Azadegan League matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.2% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Novin Ahvaz at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 3). Be'sat Kermanshah away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Novin Ahvaz, 0.81 for Be'sat Kermanshah. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Azadegan League this season · since 15 Sept

NOVIN AHVAZ

LDDDDW0–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–0

BE'SAT KERMANSHAH

DWLWLL0–0 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mes Rafsanjan	6	+6	14
2	Pars Jonoubi JAM	6	+4	14
3	Ario Eslamshahr	6	+4	12
4	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	6	+3	12
5	Saipa	6	+1	10
6	Naft Masjed Soleyman	6	+2	8
7	Fard Alborz	6	+1	8
8	Mes Soongoun	6	−1	8
9	Be'sat Kermanshah	6	+1	7
10	Novin Ahvaz	6	0	7
11	Naft Gachsaran	6	0	6
12	Shahin Bandar Ameri	6	−2	6
13	Naft Bandar Abbas	6	−4	6
14	Niroye Zamini	6	−5	4
15	Mes Kerman	6	−3	3
16	Havadar	6	−7	2