Niroye Zamini v Shenavarsazi Qeshm prediction · Azadegan League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Niroye ZaminiDrawShenavarsazi Qeshm

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Draw 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Niroye Zamini 37%, draw 38%, Shenavarsazi Qeshm 25%. Over 2.5 goals 23%, both teams to score 32%.

The AI’s read on Niroye Zamini v Shenavarsazi QeshmBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Niroye Zamini win37%

Draw38%

Shenavarsazi Qeshm win25%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Niroye Zamini

Shenavarsazi Qeshm

6Days since last match6

Last match: 20 Oct · Azadegan League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	6	+3	12
14	Niroye Zamini	6	−5	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · updated 21 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

38% The market32%

Us38%

~~Market~~32%

We make the draw a 38% chance. The market has it at 32%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Niroye Zamini v Shenavarsazi Qeshm~~0.94 – 0.72

~~Form · Azadegan League this season · since 15 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 12~~14 v 4

~~The market · Draw~~32% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Draw The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Niroye Zamini win	37%	31%	+6
Draw	38%	32%	+6
Shenavarsazi Qeshm win	25%	37%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	23%	29%	−6
Both teams to score	32%	37%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	51%	56%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	9%	–	–
Niroye Zamini or draw	75%	63%	+12
Niroye Zamini clean sheet	49%	–	–
Shenavarsazi Qeshm clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 21.5%

0123450 21.5 11.9 5.0 1 15.9 14.2 4.5 2 8.3 5.8 2.1 3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Niroye Zamini down, Shenavarsazi Qeshm across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,542 Azadegan League matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Azadegan League matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.2% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Niroye Zamini at home: 0.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Shenavarsazi Qeshm away: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.94 goals for Niroye Zamini, 0.72 for Shenavarsazi Qeshm. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SHE 0–0 NIR · NIR 1–0 SHE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Azadegan League this season · since 15 Sept

NIROYE ZAMINI

WLLDLL1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–4

SHENAVARSAZI QESHM

DDDWWW0–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mes Rafsanjan	6	+6	14
2	Pars Jonoubi JAM	6	+4	14
3	Ario Eslamshahr	6	+4	12
4	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	6	+3	12
5	Saipa	6	+1	10
6	Naft Masjed Soleyman	6	+2	8
7	Fard Alborz	6	+1	8
8	Mes Soongoun	6	−1	8
9	Be'sat Kermanshah	6	+1	7
10	Novin Ahvaz	6	0	7
11	Naft Gachsaran	6	0	6
12	Shahin Bandar Ameri	6	−2	6
13	Naft Bandar Abbas	6	−4	6
14	Niroye Zamini	6	−5	4
15	Mes Kerman	6	−3	3
16	Havadar	6	−7	2