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Naft Masjed Soleyman v Saipa

Naft Masjed Soleyman
1–1Full time
Saipa

Azadegan League · MON 19 OCT

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 18:01
Naft Masjed Soleyman 1–1 Saipa NAFT MASJED SOLEYMAN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Naft Masjed Soleyman win37%
The market said34%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.636
The market’s Brier score0.688

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 17 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Naft Masjed Soleyman win at 37%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Naft Masjed Soleyman was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–35–27
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Naft Masjed Soleyman v Saipa
  4. 18′Saipa find the net on 18′. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–22–65
  5. 18′A goal for Saipa on 18′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 4–9–87
  6. 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Naft Masjed Soleyman 0–1 Saipa
  7. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Naft Masjed Soleyman win: 37% at kick-off, 13% now
  8. 18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Saipa win is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Naft Masjed Soleyman win 37%)
  9. 18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Naft Masjed Soleyman 0–2 Saipa
  10. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Naft Masjed Soleyman win: 37% at kick-off, 4% now
  11. 19′We said Naft Masjed Soleyman at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–9–87
  12. 22′Naft Masjed Soleyman score on 22′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 12–22–66
  13. 22′We said Naft Masjed Soleyman at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 1–2 · 12–22–66
  14. 22′⚽ GOAL · 22' Naft Masjed Soleyman 1–2 Saipa
  15. 22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Naft Masjed Soleyman win: 37% at kick-off, 12% now
  16. 25′GOAL DISALLOWED · 25' Saipa
  17. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Naft Masjed Soleyman win: 37% at kick-off, 34% now
  18. 25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Saipa win 66%)
  19. 45′HALF-TIME Naft Masjed Soleyman 1–1 Saipa
  20. 46′SECOND HALF Naft Masjed Soleyman 1–1 Saipa
  21. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+5' Naft Masjed Soleyman win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
  22. 55′We said Naft Masjed Soleyman at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 1–1 · 25–55–20
  23. 58′We said Naft Masjed Soleyman at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–57–19
  24. 67′We said Naft Masjed Soleyman at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–65–15
  25. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Naft Masjed Soleyman win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
  26. 75′Goals are coming at about the 1.9 we expected. 1–1 · 14–74–11
  27. 81′We said Naft Masjed Soleyman at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–7
  28. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Naft Masjed Soleyman win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
  29. FTFULL TIME Naft Masjed Soleyman 1–1 Saipa
  30. FTNaft Masjed Soleyman 1–1 Saipa · Naft Masjed Soleyman win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Naft Masjed Soleyman just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Naft Masjed Soleyman 37%, draw 35%, Saipa 27%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Naft Masjed Soleyman v SaipaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Naft Masjed Soleyman win37%
Draw35%
Saipa win27%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Naft Masjed Soleyman

Saipa

8Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Azadegan League

Last match: 12 Oct · Azadegan League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Saipa5+19
7Naft Masjed Soleyman5+27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · naft masjed soleyman winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off
37% The market34%
Us37%
Market34%

We make Naft Masjed Soleyman a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Naft Masjed Soleyman v Saipa1.07 – 0.87
Form · Azadegan League this season · since 16 SeptW2 D1 L2 · W3 D0 L2
Table places · points 7 v 97 v 4
The market · Naft Masjed Soleyman win34% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40% 13 OCT 05:3819 OCT 15:09
Our probability · Naft Masjed Soleyman win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Naft Masjed Soleyman win37%34%+3
Draw35%32%+3
Saipa win27%34%−7
Over 2.5 goals31%31%0
Both teams to score39%40%−1
Over 1.5 goals59%57%+2
Over 3.5 goals14%16%−2
Naft Masjed Soleyman or draw73%66%+7
Naft Masjed Soleyman clean sheet43%––
Saipa clean sheet36%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.2%
0123450 17.2 10.7 5.5 1 13.3 14.7 5.6 2 8.0 6.7 2.9 3 3.0 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Naft Masjed Soleyman down, Saipa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting0.75
Over 2.50 of 4
Both scored0 of 4
Last meetingsNAF 0–0 SAI · SAI 2–0 NAF · NAF 0–0 SAI · SAI 0–1 NAF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Azadegan League this season · since 16 Sept

NAFT MASJED SOLEYMAN

WLLWD3–0 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 1–1

SAIPA

WWWLL2–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Pars Jonoubi JAM5+311
2Mes Rafsanjan5+311
3Shenavarsazi Qeshm5+29
4Saipa5+19
5Ario Eslamshahr509
6Fard Alborz5+38
7Naft Masjed Soleyman5+27
8Be'sat Kermanshah5+27
9Naft Bandar Abbas506
10Shahin Bandar Ameri5−16
11Mes Soongoun5−25
12Novin Ahvaz5−14
13Niroye Zamini5−24
14Mes Kerman5−23
15Naft Gachsaran5−23
16Havadar5−62

The competition's standings before kick-off.