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Naft Gachsaran v Fard Alborz
Naft Gachsaran
Fard AlborzAzadegan League · MON 19 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 40%.
- 45′A goal for Fard Alborz on 45′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 74–21–5
- 45′We said the draw at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 2–1 · 74–21–5
- 45′3 goals already, more than the 1.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 74–21–5
- 46′SECOND HALF Naft Gachsaran 2–1 Fard Alborz
- 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Draw: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
- 51′We said the draw at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–1 · 76–19–4
- 68′We said the draw at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–1 · 84–14–2
- 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Draw: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
- 78′We said the draw at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
- 79′Naft Gachsaran score on 79′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Naft Gachsaran 3–1 Fard Alborz
- 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Draw: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
- 80′We said the draw at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 81′That is 4, and we only asked for 1.5 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
- 93′A goal for Fard Alborz on 90′ — 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
- 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Naft Gachsaran 4–2 Fard Alborz
- 94′That is 6, and we only asked for 1.5 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 100–0–0
- FTFULL TIME Naft Gachsaran 4–2 Fard Alborz
- FTNaft Gachsaran 4–2 Fard Alborz · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Under 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
A draw is the likeliest result.
The Pitchside prediction: Naft Gachsaran 25%, draw 40%, Fard Alborz 35%. Over 2.5 goals 19%, both teams to score 29%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off
Naft Gachsaran win25%
Fard Alborz win35%Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 15:30
RoundMatchday 6
Match timeline
All events
Naft GachsaranMIN
Fard AlborzEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Naft Gachsaran
Fard Alborz
Last match: 12 Oct · Azadegan League
Last match: 11 Oct · Azadegan League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make the draw a 40% chance. The market has it at 32%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–0.8.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naft Gachsaran win | 25% | 32% | −7 |
| Draw | 40% | 32% | +8 |
| Fard Alborz win | 35% | 36% | −1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 19% | 32% | −13 |
| Both teams to score | 29% | 40% | −11 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 46% | 57% | −11 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 7% | 15% | −8 |
| Naft Gachsaran or draw | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Naft Gachsaran clean sheet | 44% | – | – |
| Fard Alborz clean sheet | 52% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2025/26Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Azadegan League this season · since 15 Sept
NAFT GACHSARAN
FARD ALBORZ
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 5 | +3 | 11 |
| 2 | Mes Rafsanjan | 5 | +3 | 11 |
| 3 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 4 | Saipa | 5 | +1 | 9 |
| 5 | Ario Eslamshahr | 5 | 0 | 9 |
| 6 | Fard Alborz | 5 | +3 | 8 |
| 7 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 5 | +2 | 7 |
| 8 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 5 | +2 | 7 |
| 9 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 5 | −1 | 6 |
| 11 | Mes Soongoun | 5 | −2 | 5 |
| 12 | Novin Ahvaz | 5 | −1 | 4 |
| 13 | Niroye Zamini | 5 | −2 | 4 |
| 14 | Mes Kerman | 5 | −2 | 3 |
| 15 | Naft Gachsaran | 5 | −2 | 3 |
| 16 | Havadar | 5 | −6 | 2 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Pars Jonoubi JAM
Mes Rafsanjan
Shenavarsazi Qeshm
Saipa
Ario Eslamshahr
Naft Masjed Soleyman
Be'sat Kermanshah
Naft Bandar Abbas
Shahin Bandar Ameri
Mes Soongoun
Novin Ahvaz
Niroye Zamini
Mes Kerman
Havadar