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Naft Gachsaran v Fard Alborz

Naft Gachsaran
4–2Full time
Fard Alborz

Azadegan League · MON 19 OCT

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 18:01
Naft Gachsaran 4–2 Fard Alborz DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGUNDER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said a draw40%
The market said32%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.852
The market’s Brier score0.694

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 7 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 40%.
  2. 45′A goal for Fard Alborz on 45′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 74–21–5
  3. 45′We said the draw at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 2–1 · 74–21–5
  4. 45′3 goals already, more than the 1.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 74–21–5
  5. 46′SECOND HALF Naft Gachsaran 2–1 Fard Alborz
  6. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Draw: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
  7. 51′We said the draw at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–1 · 76–19–4
  8. 68′We said the draw at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–1 · 84–14–2
  9. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Draw: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
  10. 78′We said the draw at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
  11. 79′Naft Gachsaran score on 79′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  12. 79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Naft Gachsaran 3–1 Fard Alborz
  13. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Draw: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
  14. 80′We said the draw at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at under 1%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  15. 81′That is 4, and we only asked for 1.5 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
  16. 93′A goal for Fard Alborz on 90′ — 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  17. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Naft Gachsaran 4–2 Fard Alborz
  18. 94′That is 6, and we only asked for 1.5 across ninety minutes. 4–2 · 100–0–0
  19. FTFULL TIME Naft Gachsaran 4–2 Fard Alborz
  20. FTNaft Gachsaran 4–2 Fard Alborz · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Under 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Naft Gachsaran 25%, draw 40%, Fard Alborz 35%. Over 2.5 goals 19%, both teams to score 29%.

The AI’s read on Naft Gachsaran v Fard AlborzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Naft Gachsaran win25%
Draw40%
Fard Alborz win35%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Naft Gachsaran

Fard Alborz

7Days since last match8

Last match: 12 Oct · Azadegan League

Last match: 11 Oct · Azadegan League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Fard Alborz5+38
15Naft Gachsaran5−23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off
40% The market32%
Us40%
Market32%

We make the draw a 40% chance. The market has it at 32%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Naft Gachsaran v Fard Alborz0.66 – 0.84
Form · Azadegan League this season · since 15 SeptW0 D3 L2 · W2 D2 L1
Table places · points 3 v 815 v 6
The market · Draw32% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 13 OCT 05:3819 OCT 15:09
Our probability · Draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Naft Gachsaran win25%32%−7
Draw40%32%+8
Fard Alborz win35%36%−1
Over 2.5 goals19%32%−13
Both teams to score29%40%−11
Over 1.5 goals46%57%−11
Over 3.5 goals7%15%−8
Naft Gachsaran or draw65%64%+1
Naft Gachsaran clean sheet44%––
Fard Alborz clean sheet52%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 24.8%
0123450 24.8 16.8 7.8 2.3 1 12.8 13.7 5.0 2 4.9 4.0 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Naft Gachsaran down, Fard Alborz across0–5 goals a side shown (100.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26
Goals a meeting1.00
Over 2.50 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsNAF 1–1 FAR · FAR 0–0 NAF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Azadegan League this season · since 15 Sept

NAFT GACHSARAN

DLDDL0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

FARD ALBORZ

DWDLW1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Pars Jonoubi JAM5+311
2Mes Rafsanjan5+311
3Shenavarsazi Qeshm5+29
4Saipa5+19
5Ario Eslamshahr509
6Fard Alborz5+38
7Naft Masjed Soleyman5+27
8Be'sat Kermanshah5+27
9Naft Bandar Abbas506
10Shahin Bandar Ameri5−16
11Mes Soongoun5−25
12Novin Ahvaz5−14
13Niroye Zamini5−24
14Mes Kerman5−23
15Naft Gachsaran5−23
16Havadar5−62

The competition's standings before kick-off.