Naft Bandar Abbas v Mes Rafsanjan prediction · Azadegan League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Naft Bandar AbbasDrawMes Rafsanjan

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Draw 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Naft Bandar Abbas 32%, draw 39%, Mes Rafsanjan 29%. Over 2.5 goals 22%, both teams to score 31%.

The AI’s read on Naft Bandar Abbas v Mes RafsanjanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Naft Bandar Abbas win32%

Draw39%

Mes Rafsanjan win29%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Naft Bandar Abbas

Mes Rafsanjan

7Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · Azadegan League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

39% The market31%

Us39%

~~Market~~31%

We make the draw a 39% chance. The market has it at 31%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Naft Bandar Abbas v Mes Rafsanjan~~0.83 – 0.78

~~Form · Azadegan League this season · since 15 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 6 v 14~~13 v 1

~~The market · Draw~~31% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Naft Bandar Abbas win	32%	28%	+4
Draw	39%	31%	+8
Mes Rafsanjan win	29%	41%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	22%	33%	−11
Both teams to score	31%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	49%	60%	−11
Over 3.5 goals	8%	–	–
Naft Bandar Abbas or draw	71%	59%	+12
Naft Bandar Abbas clean sheet	47%	–	–
Mes Rafsanjan clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 22.6%

0123450 22.6 13.7 6.1 1 14.6 14.1 4.8 2 6.9 5.1 2.0 3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Naft Bandar Abbas down, Mes Rafsanjan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,542 Azadegan League matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Azadegan League matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.2% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Naft Bandar Abbas at home: 0.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Mes Rafsanjan away: 0.50 scored, 0.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

0.83 goals for Naft Bandar Abbas, 0.78 for Mes Rafsanjan. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Azadegan League this season · since 15 Sept

NAFT BANDAR ABBAS

DWDLDL1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–4

MES RAFSANJAN

DDWWWW0–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mes Rafsanjan	6	+6	14
2	Pars Jonoubi JAM	6	+4	14
3	Ario Eslamshahr	6	+4	12
4	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	6	+3	12
5	Saipa	6	+1	10
6	Naft Masjed Soleyman	6	+2	8
7	Fard Alborz	6	+1	8
8	Mes Soongoun	6	−1	8
9	Be'sat Kermanshah	6	+1	7
10	Novin Ahvaz	6	0	7
11	Naft Gachsaran	6	0	6
12	Shahin Bandar Ameri	6	−2	6
13	Naft Bandar Abbas	6	−4	6
14	Niroye Zamini	6	−5	4
15	Mes Kerman	6	−3	3
16	Havadar	6	−7	2