Naft Bandar Abbas v Havadar prediction · Azadegan League

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 18:01

Naft Bandar Abbas 1–1 Havadar DRAW · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGUNDER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said a draw~~40%

~~The market said~~29%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.552

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.849

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: the draw was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 40–36–24
1′KICK-OFF Naft Bandar Abbas v Havadar
22′Much as we predicted: the draw was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 35–43–22
45′HALF-TIME Naft Bandar Abbas 0–0 Havadar
46′SECOND HALF Naft Bandar Abbas 0–0 Havadar
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Naft Bandar Abbas 1–0 Havadar
89′⚽ GOAL · 66' Naft Bandar Abbas 1–0 Havadar · A. M. Setayesh
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Naft Bandar Abbas 1–1 Havadar
FTFULL TIME Naft Bandar Abbas 1–1 Havadar
FTNaft Bandar Abbas 1–1 Havadar · Draw: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Under 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

Naft Bandar Abbas win38%

Draw40%

Havadar win22%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 15:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Naft Bandar Abbas

Havadar

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Naft Bandar Abbas	4	0	5
16	Havadar	4	−6	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

40% The market29%

Us40%

~~Market~~29%

We make the draw a 40% chance. The market has it at 29%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 29% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Naft Bandar Abbas win	38%	57%	−19
Draw	40%	29%	+11
Havadar win	22%	13%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	19%	27%	−8
Both teams to score	28%	29%	0
Over 1.5 goals	46%	54%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	7%	–	–
Naft Bandar Abbas or draw	78%	87%	−8
Naft Bandar Abbas clean sheet	55%	–	–
Havadar clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 24.8%

0123450 24.8 11.6 4.2 1 17.8 13.5 3.6 2 8.8 5.2 3 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Naft Bandar Abbas down, Havadar across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,528 Azadegan League matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Azadegan League matches have gone over 2.5 in 23.5% of games this season, across 34 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Naft Bandar Abbas at home: 0.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Havadar away: 0.50 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.89 goals for Naft Bandar Abbas, 0.61 for Havadar. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~HAV 0–0 NAF · NAF 0–1 HAV

Form · last six in Azadegan League

NAFT BANDAR ABBAS

DLDWDL0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2

HAVADAR

WDDLLL2–0 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saipa	4	+2	9
2	Fard Alborz	5	+3	8
3	Pars Jonoubi JAM	4	+2	8
4	Mes Rafsanjan	4	+2	8
5	Be'sat Kermanshah	4	+3	7
6	Naft Masjed Soleyman	5	+2	7
7	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	4	+1	6
8	Shahin Bandar Ameri	5	−1	6
9	Ario Eslamshahr	4	−1	6
10	Naft Bandar Abbas	4	0	5
11	Novin Ahvaz	5	−1	4
12	Niroye Zamini	4	−1	4
13	Mes Kerman	4	−1	3
14	Naft Gachsaran	4	−1	3
15	Mes Soongoun	4	−3	2
16	Havadar	4	−6	1