Mes Soongoun v Niroye Zamini prediction · Azadegan League

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 16:02

Mes Soongoun 1–0 Niroye Zamini DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTUNDER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said a draw~~40%

~~The market said~~32%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.658

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.600

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: the draw 40% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 36–37–27
1′KICK-OFF Mes Soongoun v Niroye Zamini
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Draw: 40% at kick-off, 50% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Draw: 40% at kick-off, 50% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Draw: 40% at kick-off, 50% now
45′HALF-TIME Mes Soongoun 0–0 Niroye Zamini
51′SECOND HALF Mes Soongoun 0–0 Niroye Zamini
56′⚽ GOAL · 51' Mes Soongoun 1–0 Niroye Zamini
61′SECOND HALF Mes Soongoun 1–0 Niroye Zamini
FTFULL TIME Mes Soongoun 1–0 Niroye Zamini
FTMes Soongoun 1–0 Niroye Zamini · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Under 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 13:32 · locked at kick-off

Mes Soongoun win34%

Draw40%

Niroye Zamini win25%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 13:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Mes Soongoun

Niroye Zamini

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Niroye Zamini	4	−1	4
15	Mes Soongoun	4	−3	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

40% The market32%

Us40%

~~Market~~32%

We make the draw a 40% chance. The market has it at 32%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mes Soongoun win	34%	37%	−2
Draw	40%	32%	+8
Niroye Zamini win	25%	31%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	20%	29%	−9
Both teams to score	29%	37%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	47%	56%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	7%	–	–
Mes Soongoun or draw	75%	69%	+5
Mes Soongoun clean sheet	51%	–	–
Niroye Zamini clean sheet	44%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 24.4%

0123450 24.4 12.9 5.1 1 16.2 14.0 4.2 2 7.6 5.1 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mes Soongoun down, Niroye Zamini across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,528 Azadegan League matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Azadegan League matches have gone over 2.5 in 23.5% of games this season, across 34 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mes Soongoun at home: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Niroye Zamini away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.84 goals for Mes Soongoun, 0.68 for Niroye Zamini. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~0 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MES 1–0 NIR · NIR 5–0 MES · MES 0–0 NIR · NIR 0–2 MES

Form · last six in Azadegan League

MES SOONGOUN

DWLDDL0–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

NIROYE ZAMINI

DLWLLD1–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saipa	4	+2	9
2	Fard Alborz	5	+3	8
3	Pars Jonoubi JAM	4	+2	8
4	Mes Rafsanjan	4	+2	8
5	Be'sat Kermanshah	4	+3	7
6	Naft Masjed Soleyman	5	+2	7
7	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	4	+1	6
8	Shahin Bandar Ameri	5	−1	6
9	Ario Eslamshahr	4	−1	6
10	Naft Bandar Abbas	4	0	5
11	Novin Ahvaz	5	−1	4
12	Niroye Zamini	4	−1	4
13	Mes Kerman	4	−1	3
14	Naft Gachsaran	4	−1	3
15	Mes Soongoun	4	−3	2
16	Havadar	4	−6	1