Mes Soongoun v Naft Masjed Soleyman prediction · Azadegan League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Mes SoongounDrawNaft Masjed Soleyman

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Draw 35%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Mes Soongoun 32%, draw 35%, Naft Masjed Soleyman 33%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Mes Soongoun v Naft Masjed SoleymanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Mes Soongoun win32%

Draw35%

Naft Masjed Soleyman win33%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mes Soongoun

Naft Masjed Soleyman

7Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · Azadegan League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Naft Masjed Soleyman	6	+2	8
8	Mes Soongoun	6	−1	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

35% The market31%

Us35%

~~Market~~31%

We make the draw a 35% chance. The market has it at 31%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mes Soongoun v Naft Masjed Soleyman~~0.99 – 1.01

~~Form · Azadegan League this season · since 16 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 8~~8 v 6

~~The market · Draw~~31% · ours 35%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mes Soongoun win	32%	37%	−5
Draw	35%	31%	+4
Naft Masjed Soleyman win	33%	32%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	32%	32%	0
Both teams to score	41%	40%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	61%	59%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Mes Soongoun or draw	67%	68%	−1
Mes Soongoun clean sheet	37%	–	–
Naft Masjed Soleyman clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.2%

0123450 16.2 11.7 6.9 2.4 1 11.5 14.8 6.5 2.3 2 6.6 6.4 3.2 3 2.3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mes Soongoun down, Naft Masjed Soleyman across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,542 Azadegan League matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Azadegan League matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.2% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.75 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mes Soongoun at home: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Naft Masjed Soleyman away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for Mes Soongoun, 1.01 for Naft Masjed Soleyman. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.75

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~MES 2–2 NAF · NAF 0–0 MES · MES 1–1 NAF · NAF 1–0 MES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Azadegan League this season · since 16 Sept

MES SOONGOUN

LDDLWW0–2 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–2

NAFT MASJED SOLEYMAN

WLLWDD3–0 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mes Rafsanjan	6	+6	14
2	Pars Jonoubi JAM	6	+4	14
3	Ario Eslamshahr	6	+4	12
4	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	6	+3	12
5	Saipa	6	+1	10
6	Naft Masjed Soleyman	6	+2	8
7	Fard Alborz	6	+1	8
8	Mes Soongoun	6	−1	8
9	Be'sat Kermanshah	6	+1	7
10	Novin Ahvaz	6	0	7
11	Naft Gachsaran	6	0	6
12	Shahin Bandar Ameri	6	−2	6
13	Naft Bandar Abbas	6	−4	6
14	Niroye Zamini	6	−5	4
15	Mes Kerman	6	−3	3
16	Havadar	6	−7	2