Mes Rafsanjan v Niroye Zamini prediction · Azadegan League

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 17:01

Mes Rafsanjan 4–1 Niroye Zamini MES RAFSANJAN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGUNDER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mes Rafsanjan win~~43%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.508

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.327

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mes Rafsanjan win at 43%.
1′KICK-OFF Mes Rafsanjan v Niroye Zamini
2′Much as we predicted: Mes Rafsanjan was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–39–18
14′A goal for Mes Rafsanjan on 14′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 82–14–4
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Mes Rafsanjan 1–0 Niroye Zamini
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Mes Rafsanjan win: 43% at kick-off, 82% now
15′We published Mes Rafsanjan at 43%. Our model now makes it 82%. 1–0 · 82–14–4
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Mes Rafsanjan win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
36′Goals are coming at about the 1.5 we expected. 1–0 · 84–14–3
39′Mes Rafsanjan score on 38′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
39′We published Mes Rafsanjan at 43%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Mes Rafsanjan 2–0 Niroye Zamini
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Mes Rafsanjan win: 43% at kick-off, 98% now
45′HALF-TIME Mes Rafsanjan 2–0 Niroye Zamini
46′36′: R. Aliyari on the scoresheet for Mes Rafsanjan, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
46′SECOND HALF Mes Rafsanjan 2–0 Niroye Zamini
57′Niroye Zamini find the net on 57′. 2–1. 2–1 · 87–11–1
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Mes Rafsanjan 2–1 Niroye Zamini
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Mes Rafsanjan win: 43% at kick-off, 87% now
58′We published Mes Rafsanjan at 43%. Our model now makes it 88%. 2–1 · 88–11–1
58′That is 3, and we only asked for 1.5 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 88–11–1
64′A goal for Mes Rafsanjan on 64′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Mes Rafsanjan 3–1 Niroye Zamini
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Mes Rafsanjan win: 43% at kick-off, 99% now
65′4 goals already, more than the 1.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
72′We published Mes Rafsanjan at 43%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′Mes Rafsanjan score on 90′ to make it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Mes Rafsanjan 4–1 Niroye Zamini
91′That is 5, and we only asked for 1.5 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
93′82′: M. H. Karimzadeh on the scoresheet for Mes Rafsanjan, making it 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Mes Rafsanjan 4–1 Niroye Zamini
FTMes Rafsanjan 4–1 Niroye Zamini · Mes Rafsanjan win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Under 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Mes Rafsanjan just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Mes Rafsanjan 43%, draw 39%, Niroye Zamini 18%. Over 2.5 goals 20%, both teams to score 27%.

The AI’s read on Mes Rafsanjan v Niroye ZaminiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Mes Rafsanjan win43%

Draw39%

Niroye Zamini win18%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 14:15

RoundMatchday 6

VenueShohadaye Sanat Mes Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mes Rafsanjan

Niroye Zamini

8Days since last match8

Last match: 12 Oct · Azadegan League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Mes Rafsanjan	5	+3	11
14	Niroye Zamini	5	−2	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mes rafsanjan winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

43% The market54%

Us43%

~~Market~~54%

We make Mes Rafsanjan a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–0.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mes Rafsanjan v Niroye Zamini~~0.98 – 0.54

~~Form · Azadegan League this season · since 15 Sept~~W3 D2 L0 · W1 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 4~~2 v 14

~~The market · Mes Rafsanjan win~~54% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mes Rafsanjan win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mes Rafsanjan win	43%	54%	−11
Draw	39%	30%	+9
Niroye Zamini win	18%	16%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	20%	29%	−9
Both teams to score	27%	33%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	46%	56%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	7%	–	–
Mes Rafsanjan or draw	82%	84%	−2
Mes Rafsanjan clean sheet	59%	–	–
Niroye Zamini clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 24.6%

0123450 24.6 10.2 3.3 1 19.5 12.6 3.0 2 10.3 5.3 3 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mes Rafsanjan down, Niroye Zamini across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,538 Azadegan League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Azadegan League matches have gone over 2.5 in 25.0% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Mes Rafsanjan at home: 0.67 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 3). Niroye Zamini away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Mes Rafsanjan, 0.54 for Niroye Zamini. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Azadegan League this season · since 15 Sept

MES RAFSANJAN

DDWWW0–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

NIROYE ZAMINI

WLLDL1–0 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pars Jonoubi JAM	5	+3	11
2	Mes Rafsanjan	5	+3	11
3	Saipa	6	+1	10
4	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	5	+2	9
5	Ario Eslamshahr	5	0	9
6	Naft Masjed Soleyman	6	+2	8
7	Fard Alborz	6	+1	8
8	Mes Soongoun	6	−1	8
9	Be'sat Kermanshah	5	+2	7
10	Novin Ahvaz	6	0	7
11	Naft Gachsaran	6	0	6
12	Naft Bandar Abbas	5	0	6
13	Shahin Bandar Ameri	6	−2	6
14	Niroye Zamini	5	−2	4
15	Mes Kerman	5	−2	3
16	Havadar	6	−7	2