Mes Kerman v Shahin Bandar Ameri prediction · Azadegan League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Mes KermanDrawShahin Bandar Ameri

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Mes Kerman 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mes Kerman are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mes Kerman 44%, draw 37%, Shahin Bandar Ameri 20%. Over 2.5 goals 24%, both teams to score 31%.

The AI’s read on Mes Kerman v Shahin Bandar AmeriBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Mes Kerman win44%

Draw37%

Shahin Bandar Ameri win20%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mes Kerman

Shahin Bandar Ameri

6Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · Azadegan League

Last match: 19 Oct · Azadegan League

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Shahin Bandar Ameri	6	−2	6
15	Mes Kerman	6	−3	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mes kerman winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Mes Kerman a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–0.6, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 21%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mes Kerman v Shahin Bandar Ameri~~1.06 – 0.62

~~Form · Azadegan League this season · since 15 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 6~~15 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mes Kerman win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mes Kerman win	44%	–	–
Draw	37%	–	–
Shahin Bandar Ameri win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	24%	–	–
Both teams to score	31%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	51%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	10%	–	–
Mes Kerman or draw	80%	–	–
Mes Kerman clean sheet	54%	–	–
Shahin Bandar Ameri clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 21.2%

0123450 21.2 9.9 3.7 1 17.6 13.3 3.7 2 10.2 6.1 3 3.8 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mes Kerman down, Shahin Bandar Ameri across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,542 Azadegan League matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Azadegan League matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.2% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mes Kerman at home: 0.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Shahin Bandar Ameri away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Mes Kerman, 0.62 for Shahin Bandar Ameri. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~MES 1–0 SHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Azadegan League this season · since 15 Sept

MES KERMAN

DLDDLL1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

SHAHIN BANDAR AMERI

DDDWLL1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mes Rafsanjan	6	+6	14
2	Pars Jonoubi JAM	6	+4	14
3	Ario Eslamshahr	6	+4	12
4	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	6	+3	12
5	Saipa	6	+1	10
6	Naft Masjed Soleyman	6	+2	8
7	Fard Alborz	6	+1	8
8	Mes Soongoun	6	−1	8
9	Be'sat Kermanshah	6	+1	7
10	Novin Ahvaz	6	0	7
11	Naft Gachsaran	6	0	6
12	Shahin Bandar Ameri	6	−2	6
13	Naft Bandar Abbas	6	−4	6
14	Niroye Zamini	6	−5	4
15	Mes Kerman	6	−3	3
16	Havadar	6	−7	2