Mes Kerman v Mes Rafsanjan prediction · Azadegan League

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 15:01

Mes Kerman 0–1 Mes Rafsanjan DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTUNDER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said a draw~~44%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.950

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.686

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Mes Kerman v Mes Rafsanjan
2′Much as we predicted: the draw was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 37–40–22
25′Much as we predicted: the draw was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 32–48–20
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Draw: 44% at kick-off, 54% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Draw: 44% at kick-off, 48% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Draw: 44% at kick-off, 48% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Draw: 44% at kick-off, 54% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Draw: 44% at kick-off, 54% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Draw: 44% at kick-off, 48% now
45′HALF-TIME Mes Kerman 0–0 Mes Rafsanjan
46′SECOND HALF Mes Kerman 0–0 Mes Rafsanjan
85′⚽ GOAL · 85' Mes Kerman 0–1 Mes Rafsanjan
FTFULL TIME Mes Kerman 0–1 Mes Rafsanjan
FTMes Kerman 0–1 Mes Rafsanjan · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Under 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 12:31 · locked at kick-off

Mes Kerman win36%

Draw44%

Mes Rafsanjan win21%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 12:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Mes Kerman

Mes Rafsanjan

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Mes Rafsanjan	4	+2	8
13	Mes Kerman	4	−1	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 12:31 · locked at kick-off

44% The market34%

Us44%

~~Market~~34%

We make the draw a 44% chance. The market has it at 34%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–0.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mes Kerman win	36%	34%	+2
Draw	44%	34%	+10
Mes Rafsanjan win	21%	32%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	14%	28%	−14
Both teams to score	23%	37%	−15
Over 1.5 goals	38%	54%	−16
Over 3.5 goals	4%	13%	−8
Mes Kerman or draw	79%	68%	+12
Mes Kerman clean sheet	61%	–	–
Mes Rafsanjan clean sheet	47%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 30.4%

0123450 30.4 12.4 3.7 1 19.2 12.1 2.8 2 8.1 4.0 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mes Kerman down, Mes Rafsanjan across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,528 Azadegan League matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Azadegan League matches have gone over 2.5 in 23.5% of games this season, across 34 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Mes Kerman at home: 0.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Mes Rafsanjan away: 0.00 scored, 0.00 conceded (last 1).

What the model expects

0.76 goals for Mes Kerman, 0.51 for Mes Rafsanjan. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meeting of these two in Azadegan League since 2021 in our records. Only this competition's matches are held here: cup ties and meetings in other leagues are not, and we say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Azadegan League

MES KERMAN

DLDLDD0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–0

MES RAFSANJAN

DDWW0–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saipa	4	+2	9
2	Fard Alborz	5	+3	8
3	Pars Jonoubi JAM	4	+2	8
4	Mes Rafsanjan	4	+2	8
5	Be'sat Kermanshah	4	+3	7
6	Naft Masjed Soleyman	5	+2	7
7	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	4	+1	6
8	Shahin Bandar Ameri	5	−1	6
9	Ario Eslamshahr	4	−1	6
10	Naft Bandar Abbas	4	0	5
11	Novin Ahvaz	5	−1	4
12	Niroye Zamini	4	−1	4
13	Mes Kerman	4	−1	3
14	Naft Gachsaran	4	−1	3
15	Mes Soongoun	4	−3	2
16	Havadar	4	−6	1