Fard Alborz v Shahin Bandar Ameri prediction · Azadegan League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:04

Fard Alborz 3–0 Shahin Bandar Ameri FARD ALBORZ WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTUNDER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fard Alborz win~~41%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.542

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.630

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fard Alborz win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Fard Alborz was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–35–22
3′Much as we predicted: Fard Alborz was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–36–22
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Fard Alborz win 30%)
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Fard Alborz win: 41% at kick-off, 30% now
46′SECOND HALF Fard Alborz 0–0 Shahin Bandar Ameri
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Fard Alborz 1–0 Shahin Bandar Ameri
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Fard Alborz 2–0 Shahin Bandar Ameri
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Fard Alborz 3–0 Shahin Bandar Ameri
FTFULL TIME Fard Alborz 3–0 Shahin Bandar Ameri
FTFard Alborz 3–0 Shahin Bandar Ameri · Fard Alborz win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Under 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Fard Alborz win41%

Draw39%

Shahin Bandar Ameri win20%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Fard Alborz

Shahin Bandar Ameri

7Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Shahin Bandar Ameri	4	+2	6
10	Fard Alborz	4	0	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fard alborz winPublished 11 Oct 13:43

41% The market35%

Us41%

~~Market~~35%

We make Fard Alborz a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–0.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fard alborz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fard Alborz win	41%	35%	+6
Draw	39%	32%	+7
Shahin Bandar Ameri win	20%	32%	−12
Over 2.5 goals	21%	31%	−10
Both teams to score	28%	39%	−11
Over 1.5 goals	47%	57%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	8%	14%	−7
Fard Alborz or draw	80%	68%	+12
Fard Alborz clean sheet	56%	–	–
Shahin Bandar Ameri clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 24.1%

0123450 24.1 10.7 3.8 1 18.2 13.1 3.4 2 9.6 5.4 3 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fard Alborz down, Shahin Bandar Ameri across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,526 Azadegan League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Azadegan League matches have gone over 2.5 in 21.9% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Fard Alborz at home: 0.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Shahin Bandar Ameri away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.96 goals for Fard Alborz, 0.59 for Shahin Bandar Ameri. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Azadegan League

FARD ALBORZ

LDDWDL0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1

SHAHIN BANDAR AMERI

DLDDDW0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Saipa	4	+2	9
2	Pars Jonoubi JAM	4	+2	8
3	Mes Rafsanjan	4	+2	8
4	Be'sat Kermanshah	4	+3	7
5	Naft Masjed Soleyman	4	+2	6
6	Shahin Bandar Ameri	4	+2	6
7	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	4	+1	6
8	Ario Eslamshahr	4	−1	6
9	Naft Bandar Abbas	4	0	5
10	Fard Alborz	4	0	5
11	Niroye Zamini	4	−1	4
12	Novin Ahvaz	4	−1	3
13	Mes Kerman	4	−1	3
14	Naft Gachsaran	4	−1	3
15	Mes Soongoun	4	−3	2
16	Havadar	4	−6	1