Fard Alborz v Havadar prediction · Azadegan League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Fard AlborzDrawHavadar

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Fard Alborz 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fard Alborz are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fard Alborz 43%, draw 38%, Havadar 19%. Over 2.5 goals 21%, both teams to score 28%.

The AI’s read on Fard Alborz v HavadarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Fard Alborz win43%

Draw38%

Havadar win19%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 7

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fard Alborz

Havadar

7Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · Azadegan League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Fard Alborz	6	+1	8
16	Havadar	6	−7	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fard alborz winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

43% The market41%

Us43%

~~Market~~41%

We make Fard Alborz a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.0–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fard Alborz v Havadar~~1.00 – 0.56

~~Form · Azadegan League this season · since 15 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 8 v 2~~7 v 16

~~The market · Fard Alborz win~~41% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Fard Alborz win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fard Alborz win	43%	41%	+2
Draw	38%	32%	+6
Havadar win	19%	27%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	21%	31%	−10
Both teams to score	28%	38%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	48%	58%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	8%	–	–
Fard Alborz or draw	81%	73%	+8
Fard Alborz clean sheet	57%	–	–
Havadar clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 23.3%

0123450 23.3 10.2 3.4 1 18.9 13.0 3.3 2 10.2 5.6 3 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fard Alborz down, Havadar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,542 Azadegan League matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Azadegan League matches have gone over 2.5 in 29.2% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fard Alborz at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Havadar away: 0.67 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Fard Alborz, 0.56 for Havadar. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~HAV 1–0 FAR · FAR 0–1 HAV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Azadegan League this season · since 15 Sept

FARD ALBORZ

DWDLWL1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 2–4

HAVADAR

DLLLDL0–0 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Mes Rafsanjan	6	+6	14
2	Pars Jonoubi JAM	6	+4	14
3	Ario Eslamshahr	6	+4	12
4	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	6	+3	12
5	Saipa	6	+1	10
6	Naft Masjed Soleyman	6	+2	8
7	Fard Alborz	6	+1	8
8	Mes Soongoun	6	−1	8
9	Be'sat Kermanshah	6	+1	7
10	Novin Ahvaz	6	0	7
11	Naft Gachsaran	6	0	6
12	Shahin Bandar Ameri	6	−2	6
13	Naft Bandar Abbas	6	−4	6
14	Niroye Zamini	6	−5	4
15	Mes Kerman	6	−3	3
16	Havadar	6	−7	2