Be'sat Kermanshah v Pars Jonoubi JAM prediction · Azadegan League

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 15:01

Be'sat Kermanshah 1–2 Pars Jonoubi JAM DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said a draw~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.621

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: the draw was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 28–36–36
1′KICK-OFF Be'sat Kermanshah v Pars Jonoubi JAM
23′Be'sat Kermanshah score on 23′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 67–22–11
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Be'sat Kermanshah 1–0 Pars Jonoubi JAM
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 22% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Be'sat Kermanshah win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 41%)
24′We said the draw at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 1–0 · 67–22–11
30′Pars Jonoubi JAM find the net on 30′. 1–1. 1–1 · 26–43–31
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Be'sat Kermanshah 1–1 Pars Jonoubi JAM
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 43% now
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Be'sat Kermanshah win 69%)
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 46% now
41′We published the draw at 36%. Our model now makes it 48%. 1–1 · 24–48–29
45′We published the draw at 36%. Our model now makes it 50%. 1–1 · 23–50–28
45′HALF-TIME Be'sat Kermanshah 1–2 Pars Jonoubi JAM
46′SECOND HALF Be'sat Kermanshah 1–2 Pars Jonoubi JAM
47′A goal for Pars Jonoubi JAM on 45′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 4–18–78
47′We said the draw at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–2 · 4–18–78
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Be'sat Kermanshah 1–2 Pars Jonoubi JAM
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 18% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Pars Jonoubi JAM win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 51%)
48′That is 3, and we only asked for 1.9 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 4–18–78
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
65′We said the draw at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 2–14–84
77′We said the draw at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
86′We said the draw at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 0–4–96
FTFULL TIME Be'sat Kermanshah 1–2 Pars Jonoubi JAM
FTBe'sat Kermanshah 1–2 Pars Jonoubi JAM · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Be'sat Kermanshah 28%, draw 36%, Pars Jonoubi JAM 36%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 37%.

The AI’s read on Be'sat Kermanshah v Pars Jonoubi JAMBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Be'sat Kermanshah win28%

Draw36%

Pars Jonoubi JAM win36%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Be'sat Kermanshah

Pars Jonoubi JAM

8Days since last match8

Last match: 12 Oct · Azadegan League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

36% The market–

Us36%

We make the draw a 36% chance. The model expects 0.9–1.0, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Be'sat Kermanshah v Pars Jonoubi JAM~~0.86 – 1.00

~~Form · Azadegan League this season · since 15 Sept~~W2 D1 L2 · W3 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 11~~9 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Be'sat Kermanshah win	28%	–	–
Draw	36%	–	–
Pars Jonoubi JAM win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	28%	–	–
Both teams to score	37%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	57%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
Be'sat Kermanshah or draw	64%	–	–
Be'sat Kermanshah clean sheet	38%	–	–
Pars Jonoubi JAM clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.1%

0123450 18.1 13.6 7.8 2.7 1 11.5 14.8 6.4 2.2 2 5.8 5.5 2.8 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Be'sat Kermanshah down, Pars Jonoubi JAM across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,538 Azadegan League matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Azadegan League matches have gone over 2.5 in 25.0% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 1.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Be'sat Kermanshah at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Pars Jonoubi JAM away: 1.50 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.86 goals for Be'sat Kermanshah, 1.00 for Pars Jonoubi JAM. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~1.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~BES 1–2 PAR · PAR 0–0 BES · BES 1–1 PAR · PAR 1–0 BES

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Azadegan League this season · since 15 Sept

BE'SAT KERMANSHAH

DWLWL0–0 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–2

PARS JONOUBI JAM

DDWWW0–0 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Pars Jonoubi JAM	5	+3	11
2	Mes Rafsanjan	5	+3	11
3	Saipa	6	+1	10
4	Shenavarsazi Qeshm	5	+2	9
5	Ario Eslamshahr	5	0	9
6	Naft Masjed Soleyman	6	+2	8
7	Fard Alborz	6	+1	8
8	Mes Soongoun	6	−1	8
9	Be'sat Kermanshah	5	+2	7
10	Novin Ahvaz	6	0	7
11	Naft Gachsaran	6	0	6
12	Naft Bandar Abbas	5	0	6
13	Shahin Bandar Ameri	6	−2	6
14	Niroye Zamini	5	−2	4
15	Mes Kerman	5	−2	3
16	Havadar	6	−7	2