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Ario Eslamshahr v Naft Bandar Abbas

Ario Eslamshahr
4–0Full time
Naft Bandar Abbas

Azadegan League · TUE 20 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 17:01
Ario Eslamshahr 4–0 Naft Bandar Abbas DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTUNDER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said a draw42%
The market said34%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.623
The market’s Brier score0.624

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 42%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: the draw 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 37–42–21
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Ario Eslamshahr v Naft Bandar Abbas
  4. 15′Ario Eslamshahr find the net on 15′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–16–4
  5. 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Ario Eslamshahr 1–0 Naft Bandar Abbas
  6. 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 16% now
  7. 15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Ario Eslamshahr win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 46%)
  8. 16′We said the draw at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
  9. 35′A goal for Ario Eslamshahr on 35′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
  10. 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Ario Eslamshahr 2–0 Naft Bandar Abbas
  11. 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 3% now
  12. 36′We said the draw at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
  13. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
  14. 43′Ario Eslamshahr score on 43′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  15. 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Ario Eslamshahr 3–0 Naft Bandar Abbas
  16. 44′3 goals already, more than the 1.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  17. 45′HALF-TIME Ario Eslamshahr 3–0 Naft Bandar Abbas
  18. 46′SECOND HALF Ario Eslamshahr 3–0 Naft Bandar Abbas
  19. FTFULL TIME Ario Eslamshahr 3–0 Naft Bandar Abbas
  20. FTArio Eslamshahr 4–0 Naft Bandar Abbas · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Under 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Ario Eslamshahr 37%, draw 42%, Naft Bandar Abbas 21%. Over 2.5 goals 15%, both teams to score 24%.

The AI’s read on Ario Eslamshahr v Naft Bandar AbbasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Ario Eslamshahr win37%
Draw42%
Naft Bandar Abbas win21%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 14:15

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ario Eslamshahr

Naft Bandar Abbas

8Days since last match8

Last match: 12 Oct · Azadegan League

Last match: 12 Oct · Azadegan League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Ario Eslamshahr509
12Naft Bandar Abbas506

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off
42% The market34%
Us42%
Market34%

We make the draw a 42% chance. The market has it at 34%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–0.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Ario Eslamshahr v Naft Bandar Abbas0.80 – 0.54
Form · Azadegan League this season · since 15 SeptW3 D0 L2 · W1 D3 L1
Table places · points 9 v 65 v 12
The market · Draw34% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 14:07
Our probability · Draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Ario Eslamshahr win37%36%+1
Draw42%34%+8
Naft Bandar Abbas win21%30%−9
Over 2.5 goals15%28%−13
Both teams to score24%37%−13
Over 1.5 goals40%53%−13
Over 3.5 goals5%13%−8
Ario Eslamshahr or draw79%70%+9
Ario Eslamshahr clean sheet59%––
Naft Bandar Abbas clean sheet46%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 28.4%
0123450 28.4 12.4 3.9 1 19.1 12.5 3.0 2 8.3 4.4 3 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Ario Eslamshahr down, Naft Bandar Abbas across0–5 goals a side shown (100.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024/25
Goals a meeting1.50
Over 2.50 of 4
Both scored1 of 4
Last meetingsARI 1–0 NAF · NAF 1–1 ARI · NAF 0–1 ARI · ARI 2–0 NAF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Azadegan League this season · since 15 Sept

ARIO ESLAMSHAHR

LWWLW0–3 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–1

NAFT BANDAR ABBAS

DWDLD1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Pars Jonoubi JAM5+311
2Mes Rafsanjan5+311
3Saipa6+110
4Shenavarsazi Qeshm5+29
5Ario Eslamshahr509
6Naft Masjed Soleyman6+28
7Fard Alborz6+18
8Mes Soongoun6−18
9Be'sat Kermanshah5+27
10Novin Ahvaz607
11Naft Gachsaran606
12Naft Bandar Abbas506
13Shahin Bandar Ameri6−26
14Niroye Zamini5−24
15Mes Kerman5−23
16Havadar6−72

The competition's standings before kick-off.