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Ario Eslamshahr v Naft Bandar Abbas
Ario Eslamshahr
Naft Bandar AbbasAzadegan League · TUE 20 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 42%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: the draw 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 37–42–21
- 1′KICK-OFF Ario Eslamshahr v Naft Bandar Abbas
- 15′Ario Eslamshahr find the net on 15′. 1–0. 1–0 · 80–16–4
- 15′⚽ GOAL · 15' Ario Eslamshahr 1–0 Naft Bandar Abbas
- 15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 16% now
- 15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Ario Eslamshahr win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 46%)
- 16′We said the draw at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 1–0 · 80–16–4
- 35′A goal for Ario Eslamshahr on 35′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 97–3–0
- 35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Ario Eslamshahr 2–0 Naft Bandar Abbas
- 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 3% now
- 36′We said the draw at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 2–0 · 97–3–0
- 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Draw: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
- 43′Ario Eslamshahr score on 43′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Ario Eslamshahr 3–0 Naft Bandar Abbas
- 44′3 goals already, more than the 1.3 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
- 45′HALF-TIME Ario Eslamshahr 3–0 Naft Bandar Abbas
- 46′SECOND HALF Ario Eslamshahr 3–0 Naft Bandar Abbas
- FTFULL TIME Ario Eslamshahr 3–0 Naft Bandar Abbas
- FTArio Eslamshahr 4–0 Naft Bandar Abbas · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Under 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
A draw is the likeliest result.
The Pitchside prediction: Ario Eslamshahr 37%, draw 42%, Naft Bandar Abbas 21%. Over 2.5 goals 15%, both teams to score 24%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off
Ario Eslamshahr win37%
Naft Bandar Abbas win21%Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 14:15
RoundMatchday 6
Match timeline
All events
Ario EslamshahrMIN
Naft Bandar AbbasEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Ario Eslamshahr
Naft Bandar Abbas
Last match: 12 Oct · Azadegan League
Last match: 12 Oct · Azadegan League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make the draw a 42% chance. The market has it at 34%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–0.5.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ario Eslamshahr win | 37% | 36% | +1 |
| Draw | 42% | 34% | +8 |
| Naft Bandar Abbas win | 21% | 30% | −9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 15% | 28% | −13 |
| Both teams to score | 24% | 37% | −13 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 40% | 53% | −13 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 5% | 13% | −8 |
| Ario Eslamshahr or draw | 79% | 70% | +9 |
| Ario Eslamshahr clean sheet | 59% | – | – |
| Naft Bandar Abbas clean sheet | 46% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2024/25Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Azadegan League this season · since 15 Sept
ARIO ESLAMSHAHR
NAFT BANDAR ABBAS
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pars Jonoubi JAM | 5 | +3 | 11 |
| 2 | Mes Rafsanjan | 5 | +3 | 11 |
| 3 | Saipa | 6 | +1 | 10 |
| 4 | Shenavarsazi Qeshm | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 5 | Ario Eslamshahr | 5 | 0 | 9 |
| 6 | Naft Masjed Soleyman | 6 | +2 | 8 |
| 7 | Fard Alborz | 6 | +1 | 8 |
| 8 | Mes Soongoun | 6 | −1 | 8 |
| 9 | Be'sat Kermanshah | 5 | +2 | 7 |
| 10 | Novin Ahvaz | 6 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Naft Gachsaran | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Naft Bandar Abbas | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Shahin Bandar Ameri | 6 | −2 | 6 |
| 14 | Niroye Zamini | 5 | −2 | 4 |
| 15 | Mes Kerman | 5 | −2 | 3 |
| 16 | Havadar | 6 | −7 | 2 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Pars Jonoubi JAM
Mes Rafsanjan
Saipa
Shenavarsazi Qeshm
Naft Masjed Soleyman
Fard Alborz
Mes Soongoun
Be'sat Kermanshah
Novin Ahvaz
Naft Gachsaran
Shahin Bandar Ameri
Niroye Zamini
Mes Kerman
Havadar